The Phillies have won nine straight and are up to 34-18 with the best record in baseball. They’ll wrap up their three-game series in Sacramento on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET as they give Jesus Luzardo the ball looking to get their winning streak to double digits. Let’s take a look at my top player prop bet for Luzardo this Sunday afternoon against the A’s.
While the Phillies have surged, the A’s have been trending in the other direction. They have lost 11 in a row to fall to 22-31 in last place in the AL West. The Phillies are -198 favorites on the Moneyline with a game total of O/U 10 combined runs.
Looking at the matchup, here’s my top Jesus Luzardo prop bet for Sunday’s matchup against the Athletics.
Jesus Luzardo to Record a Win (-115)
Most of the “to record a win” prop picks that I give out are at plus money, but the rest of Luzardo’s props are too skewed and don’t come in at numbers that I like. Given how hot the Phillies are and how great Luzardo has been, though, this is a good enough matchup to target at right about even odds.
Luzardo has won five of his 10 starts this season while putting together a 1.95 ERA, 2.23 FIP and 10.05 K/9. He has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of those 10 outings, including each of his last six. In those six starts, he has 38 strikeouts and has only given up 33 hits.
The Phillies have scored plenty of runs for all their starting pitchers over the last two weeks. During that time frame, they have scored 68 runs in 13 games, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. They’re hitting .268 with a .339 wOBA as a team while hitting 17 homers in those 13 games. Some of those numbers are boosted by a stop at Coors Field, but the Phillies are crushing it at any park, including Sutter Health Park, where they have 13 runs in their two wins to start the series.
Luzardo will go head-to-head with rookie Gunnar Hoglund in this matchup, and Hoglund is 1-2 in his four MLB starts with a 5.06 ERA and 5.70 FIP. In that head-to-head matchup, Luzardo should be able to do enough to leave the game with the lead. The Phillies’ bullpen should be able to hold it and secure the team its 10th straight win, and Luzardo his sixth win of the season. The Phillies can aggressively use their bullpen since they have Monday off before returning home for a six-game homestand against the Braves and Brewers.
