The Eastern Conference Finals travel to Indiana today with the Pacers already holding a 2-0 series advantage over the New York Knicks. Panic should be setting in for New York as teams have only been able to climb out of a 2-0 series deficit at a 7.3% rate across the 465 postseason matchups.
With no team ever having climbed out of a 3-0 series hole in NBA history, this is a fateful matchup for the Knicks. Everything seems to be on the table, with reports indicating the Knicks may be making a lineup change to change the outlook of the series.
While these are not names that will likely lead your squad in DFS production, look for these players to outperform their price point and provide some flexibility to get more stars into your lineup. Here are my three favorite value plays in today’s Game 3 matchup between the Pacers and Knicks to give you the edge on winning your DFS contest.
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C Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, $4,200
There aren’t many positives to write home about from the Knicks’ perspective, but Mitchell Robinson must be at the top of the list. The defensive edge he provides changes the outlook of the game, and New York is expected to lean further into this by inserting him into the starting lineup. Robinson saw 29:20 of game action in Game 2, which marked the most he played across this playoff game and the second-most minutes he logged all season. In contrast, the defensive concerns brought on by Karl-Anthony Towns resulted in his minutes being cut, with the 27:41 of game action he played in the previous game marking the fewest he has played all postseason.
Robinson is averaging 4.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game across his 19.5 minutes per game in the postseason. He finished with six points, nine rebounds, and three blocks in the previous game, ending a +6 in the five-point loss. This resulted in 23.2 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring, above the 17.6 he averaged in the regular season. Robinson also has tallied as many as 35.2 fantasy points in a game in the series against the Pistons and 29.8 fantasy points in the series against the Celtics.
There has never been a question regarding Mitchell Robinson’s ability or impact, but injuries have prevented him from settling into a larger role. He is fully healthy, and New York looks set to double down on the belief that his impact will shift this series. Expect Robinson to be extremely active on the glass, with his offensive rebounds being kicked out for three-pointers serving as one of New York’s more reliable sources of offense. He is a constant lob threat around the rim, and his frame and athleticism have stood out in this series. The $4,200 is a bit steep of a price tag from a value perspective, but this game has all the makings of being remembered as “The Mitchell Robinson Game.” Expect Robinson to see at or near the most minutes in this playoff run and produce a strong DFS output well above this price point.
PG T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, $4,000
In contrast to the Knicks’ tight rotation, Indiana has plenty of rotational players they are comfortable cycling through and allowing a chance to make an impact. T.J. McConnell headlines the list of names whose energy level can completely shift a matchup. The scrappy guard is willing to pick up all 94 feet and has spent stretches pestering Jalen Brunson already in this series. McConnell is also a threat in transition and a master of maneuvering through the lane to get to his short pull-up spots on the offensive end.
So far in the postseason, McConnell is averaging 8.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in his 16.3 minutes per game. He tallied the fifth most fantasy points on this Pacers team across the regular season and is averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game in this playoff run based on DraftKings scoring. He has tallied as many as 29.5 in two separate games this playoff run and as many as 48.2 in the regular season.
The cliche that role players play better at home can be overstated, but McConnell is an energy guy who will feed off the Indiana crowd today. New York must put their best effort on the floor and expect McConnell to be utilized as a disrupter when momentum begins to favor the road team. The Arizona product has scored 10 points in both matchups in this series thus far, but has not had his signature moment where he puts his full imprint on the series yet. McConnell shot 54.3% from the field at home this season in comparison to 49.8% on the road. Don’t be shocked if he sees his largest level of opportunity in this matchup today, with Indiana needing to maintain momentum and vastly outperforming the $4,000 price point he is listed at.
PG/SG Ben Sheppard, Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, $1,000
Few teams hold value in their 11th man in the rotation during a playoff series, but the Pacers are an exception to this. Ben Sheppard has seen his level of opportunity vary across the postseason, but he played 12:42 of game time in the previous matchup, knocking down a pair of key three-pointers. The Belmont product has tallied as many as 17.8 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring in this postseason and has also been used as a change-of-pace option for slowing down Jalen Brunson.
Heading into the first home game of the series, expect Sheppard to receive a notable opportunity on the floor once again. He is a high-IQ player who has unlocked a lot of Indiana’s offense with his off-ball motion when he is on the floor. Sheppard playing fourth quarter minutes in the Game 2 victory is more than just a brush over storyline and is evidence of the trust that Rick Carlisle has in him.
The ceiling is limited for Sheppard due to the number of names ahead of him. But at a $1,000 price point, he possesses some great value. If you are shifting around your lineup to get some of the bigger stars, Sheppard is a great value play who will be in line to at least pull his weight at the bottom of the lineup. Don’t be surprised if the success he helped provide in the previous game, finishing a +8 in the victory, opens the door for a larger chance in Game 3 and for Sheppard to be ready whenever his name is called upon.
