The Minnesota Timberwolves have fallen into a 2-0 series hole at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals and have their backs against the wall far sooner than they hoped. The series returns home to Minnesota with this sure to be viewed as a must-win matchup. Historically, teams have only been able to come back and win the series after trailing 2-0 at a 7.3% rate across the 465 postseason matchups this has occurred. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history.
Oklahoma City has outclassed Minnesota to this point, outscoring the Wolves 232-191 and covering the spread in both victories. The Timberwolves will need to play at a higher level to have a chance and have little margin for error in this matchup. The Thunder are favored at -1400 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to advance in the series with the TWolves given +850 odds of moving onto the Finals.
Looking at the Game 3 odds, the Thunder are favored by 2.5 points and hold -142 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Minnesota holds +120 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 218.5.
With plenty on the line in Game 3, here are my favorite prop bets for this potentially fateful Western Conference Finals matchup.
Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-115)
We are going directly to the head of the snake for this first pick. Anthony Edwards must step up in this Game 3 matchup, and I like his chances of recording over 27.5 points tonight. To this point, he has been outclassed by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this star guard matchup, which cannot happen if the Timberwolves are going to get the win. While there is no shame in not living up to Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP standard, Edwards has produced scoring outputs of 18 and 32 in the opening two games.
Overall, Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per game in the postseason while attempting 20.8 shots per game. He was bothered by the Thunder defense in the opening matchup and was limited to just 13 shot attempts. Edwards played with much more aggression in the second game, shooting 12-for-26 overall. He still left some production on the table, shooting just 1-for-9 from beyond the three-point line.
It has been an excellent playoffs for Julius Randle, but he came back to earth in Game 2, finishing with six points, five rebounds and five assists. At its core, Minnesota is a defensive-minded team, but it is limited in offensive options outside of Edwards. This is magnified when Randle struggles, and Naz Reid also has gotten off to a poor start in the series.
Edwards has played himself into the superstar category and received All-NBA second team honors as a result. It is going to take a superstar performance for the 23-year-old to give his team a chance. Expect Edwards to be up for the challenge and to play in attack mode right from the opening whistle. He has tallied over 27.5 points in five of the past 10 playoff games. Even if it is not the most efficient path to reaching this total, count on Edwards recording over 27.5 points in this must-win matchup.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams headline the offensive attack for Oklahoma City, but Chet Holmgren is the X-factor in a few different ways for this Thunder team. He has done an excellent job defensively and played a huge role in limiting Randle’s impact in the previous game. But Holmgren is a more capable offensive weapon than he sometimes can show, and his ability to space the floor is necessary for allowing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to attack the rim.
The Gonzaga product averaged 15.0 points per game in the regular season, shooting 37.9% from the perimeter on 3.9 long-range shots per game. So far in the postseason, he is averaging 16.2 points per game and has seen his three-point volume grow to 4.6 perimeter shots per game. He tallied over 1.5 three-pointers made in 13 of the 32 regular-season games played and has reached this total in five of the 13 playoff games. Holmgren shot 1-for-6 from beyond the arc in the previous game after attempting just one three-pointer in Game 1. His overall shot attempts grew from nine in the series opener to 17 in Game 2, which should be looked at as a sign of things to come.
Minnesota has not found the solution for slowing down this Thunder team. When Holmgren is played as the primary big man, it forces Rudy Gobert to guard on the perimeter, where he can be exposed. Neither Randle nor Reid is a clear match either. Holmgren shot 4-for-6 from deep in the two regular-season matchups with the Timberwolves. Oklahoma City has outscored Minnesota 112-64 in the paint in the opening two games, so expect it to continue attacking this way. Holmgren must space the floor to allow this to be the case and count on him being a beneficiary of collapsing the defense and receiving perimeter looks. Look for him to capitalize with over 1.5 made three-pointers tonight.
Naz Reid to Record 20+ Points & Rebounds (+120)
Naz Reid has struggled greatly to start this series, shooting a combined 0-for-12 from beyond the three-point arc in the first two games. The Minnesota fan-favorite adjusted accordingly and made a clearer effort to attack the paint in Game 2. He will also benefit from returning home, where he has shot the ball much better this year. Across the regular season, Reid shot 48.0% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the three-point arc at Target Center in comparison to 44.1% from the field and 34.5% from deep on the road.
This willingness to attack the paint opened up Reid’s game, and expect being at home to do the same in Game 3. Even with the struggles, he finished with 10 points in the previous game and has pulled in eight rebounds in both matchups. Reid shot 3-for-3 inside the key in Game 2 and is shooting 80% within 10 feet of the basket and 60% at the rim in the series. He also got to the free-throw line six times in the previous game. Last year’s Sixth Man of the Year averaged 14.2 points and 6.0 rebounds in the regular season and is due for a better shooting night after such uncharacteristic perimeter performances.
Reid logged 28 minutes in each of the opening two games and could be in line for an even further expanded opportunity given the matchup issues that Gobert can sometimes create. Minnesota needs a spark of energy, and Reid is the guy to provide it. He tallied 20+ combined points and rebounds in 33 regular-season games, including all four matchups against the Thunder. Look for him to wash away the struggles of the opening two games and get back on track with 20+ combined points and rebounds at +120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
