It’s Auto Racing Christmas! The day begins with the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Monaco. It’s followed by the Indy 500. The Memorial Day Weekend races conclude with the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.
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Race Winner — Coca-Cola 600
Ryan Blaney +650
The Coca-Cola 600 has been a wild race during the Gen-7 era, and it makes sense. This is a long race, and a lot can happen over 600 miles. With parity in the field, cars running side-by-side for 400 laps often leads to wrecks and spins. Despite the chaos, the winner is almost always a favorite. Long shots can still secure a top-10 finish, but this crown jewel race typically goes to a top contender.
Is this the week? That’s been the question and will remain so until it isn’t. Ryan Blaney is every bit as fast as Kyle Larson, he just hasn’t put together a complete race. There’s always a poorly timed caution or Kyle Larson standing in his way. Little can be done about the former, but the latter might not be a concern this time. Larson is running the double, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be at his typical dominance after 1,100 miles of racing across two states. Blaney, the 2023 Coca-Cola 600 winner, should be the favorite this weekend based on his 2025 speed.
Race Winner — Coca-Cola 600
Alex Bowman +1,600
The 2022 Coca-Cola 600 saw 18 cautions, with an average green-flag run of 17 laps. The 2023 race followed a similar pattern, with 16 cautions and an average run of 19 laps. The 2024 race had fewer cautions, but it was shortened by rain and lightning. In such chaotic races, a driver doesn’t need to be lightning-fast or have exceptional long-run speed. Being fast enough is the key. A driver can stay in contention and strike gold at the end, but hanging around for 600 miles in a caution-filled race is no easy feat.
Alex Bowman has finished 12th or better in four of his last six Charlotte races, positioning him to be in the mix at the end. That might surprise some, but an even bigger surprise lies in the stats. Bowman has been one of the best intermediate-track drivers this season, a fact that has flown completely under the radar. Traditional stats grab attention, but advanced stats, often dismissed as too complex for casual fans, tell a clear story. Bowman ranks seventh in wARP (weighted Average Running Position) and fifth in wPFARP (weighted Position Finish Above Running Position). He’s also seventh in cPOMS, a metric that measures his speed on each lap against the fastest car on that lap. Additionally, Bowman is a top-five driver in Gain Rate minus Loss Rate, Speed Score and Last Segment POMS.
