The Seattle Storm will host the Las Vegas Aces as part of Sunday’s four-game WNBA slate. Both teams are off to a 2-1 start and fall in the top six for championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Las Vegas was unable to produce the three-peat last season after losing to New York, who went on to win the championship. Kelsey Plum is no longer on the roster following the offseason trade to the Sparks, but A’Ja Wilson still headlines a star-studded roster. Chelsea Grey, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd round out most of the statistical production. It is still too early in the season to read too much into the statistical takeaways, but the Aces have turned the ball over at the lowest rate and rank third in rebounding.
The Storm are headlined by 34-year-old Skylar Diggins, who is averaging 22 points and 9.0 assists across her first three games. Nneka Ogwumike and Gabby Williams produce the bulk of the remaining production, with the Seattle roster a bit top-heavy. Seattle has fouled at the lowest rate to start the season, and is shooting 34% from the perimeter, which is the sixth-best three-point rate in the league.
Las Vegas enters this game as five-point favorites and holds -218 odds of winning on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm hold +180 moneyline odds with the game total set at 162.5 points.
Prediction for Aces vs. Storm
After falling to the Liberty 92-78 in the season opener, the Aces have woken up and looked more like the dominant team they are expected to be. They blew out the Connecticut Sun 87-62 in the following game and took down the Washington Mystics in their most recent matchup. It took Las Vegas outscoring the Mystics 25-13 in the fourth quarter to get this victory, with Loyd connecting on a corner three-pointer with 1.9 seconds remaining to get the 75-72 win.
The Storm also got off to a poor start, losing 81-59 in the season opener to the Phoenix Mercury. They followed this up with a 79-71 victory over the Wings and got their revenge with a 77-70 win over the Mercury most recently. They play a defensive brand of basketball, with this put on display in the previous game in which they limited Phoenix to just 26 points in the second half. Seattle forced 20 turnovers in the victory.
The Storm are holding opponents to 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which is the fourth-best rate in the WNBA. They have had more struggles offensively, scoring 91.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 12th in the league. The Storm rank 13th in three-point rate but are sixth in three-point percentage.
Las Vegas is a bit more well-rounded in its approach, scoring 102.8 points per 100 possessions while conceding 86.8 points. The Aces rank fifth in three-point rate and eighth in three-point percentage. Both rosters have seen some notable shakeups, but the Aces have more ways in which they can win. Wilson also continues to be the best player on every WNBA court she walks on.
Pick for Aces vs. Storm
Las Vegas Aces -5 (-110) & Under 162.5 (-110)
The Aces have won 12 of their past 13 games against the Storm. They are 4-1 against the spread in their past five matchups. Expect Seattle to make a clear effort to play slow and make this a defensive-minded game. The Storm are the better defensive team, but the Aces can hold their weight on this end as well.
Expect this to be a tight battle for most of the matchup, but for the Aces’ championship pedigree to shine through. Count on Wilson and the Aces’ offense to be the difference maker down the stretch, and for Seattle to lack the firepower to match. I am expecting this to be a low-scoring battle for most of the matchup, with the Aces being able to push their scoring total beyond reach in the later stages of the game to cover the five-point spread.
