The Tigers have dropped the first two games of their series with the Guardians, but on Saturday night, they look to bounce back with a win at home as they welcome back starting pitcher Casey Mize from the injured list. With Mize back in the mix, let’s take a look at my top player prop bet for him this Saturday night in the Motor City.
Mize’s Tigers are 33-19 and still four games ahead of both the Guardians and the Royals in the AL Central. The Tigers are home favorites at -135 on the Moneyline with a game total at eight combined runs.
Here’s my top Casey Mize prop bet for Saturday’s matchup against the Guardians.
Casey Mize over 4.5 hits allowed (+115)
Mize was off to a strong start to the season before landing on the 15-day IL with a hamstring strain. He hasn’t pitched in a game since May 8 when he won his fourth straight decision and improved to 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 3.90 FIP. He had a 1.01 WHIP and 7.38 K/9.
In his seven starts, he allowed 34 hits for an average of 4.9 hits per contest. He gave up seven hits or more in three of his last five starts before the injury. He went over this total of hits allowed in starts against the Angels, Orioles and Twins, but he held the Royals and Rockies under this prop line.
His hard-hit rate has been trending up with at least a 50.0% hard-hit rate in two of his last three outings, and his early-season success may have been a little lucky based on his BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
In order to give the Guardians a chance to get five hits, Mize will need to pitch his normal workload, which shouldn’t be too big of an obstacle since he did miss the minimum time on the IL and did pitch a five-inning simulated game on Monday.
The Guardians have totaled 50 hits over the last week for an average of 8.3 hits per inning. They’re hitting .245 as a team with a .301 wOBA. On Thursday, the Guardians had eight hits in their win in the first game of the series, and on Friday, they had six hits in their second win of the series.
Jose Ramirez is 2-for-2 against Mize in their past outings with a pair of home runs, but not many of the rest of the Guardians have faced Mize. With Ramirez as a strong leader and the rest of the Guardians’ lineup playing well in the first two games in the series, Cleveland should be able to get at least five hits off Mize in his return, especially since there could be some rust after his extended layoff.
