The Phillies continue their road trip after sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field. The Phils have won seven straight after back-to-back sweeps against the Pirates and Rockies, and their favorable schedule continues as they roll into Sacramento to face the Athletics, who have dropped nine straight after being swept in back-to-back series by the Giants and Angels. To start the series, the Phillies give the ball to their ace Zack Wheeler, so let’s take a look at what player props make sense for the 34-year-old righty this Friday.
Wheeler and the Phillies are heavily favored at -205 on the Moneyline with a game total of 9.5 combined runs. Wheeler is actually heavily favored to get the win at -155, but there are some other ways to attack his start to get more favorable odds for backing him on Friday night.
Here’s my top Zack Wheeler prop bet for his start on Friday.
Zack Wheeler over 18.5 outs recorded (-105)
Wheeler is usually pretty good at going deep into games for the Phillies, and that’s why I like targeting this prop at more favorable odds than for him to get the win. It also doesn’t depend on the Phillies’ lineup to get him runs or the bullpen to preserve the lead, so there are fewer variables involved.
Wheeler has gone over 18.5 outs recorded (working at least 6 1/3 innings) in three of his last four starts and and four of his last six. He came up just short in six innings at home against the Pirates in his last start, but worked seven full innings (21 outs) in each of his two previous outings in Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
One factor that has enabled him to work deep into games has been his ability to limit runs allowed. He has given up two runs or fewer in six straight starts. While the Phillies did sweep the Rockies, they did have to use their high-leverage bullpen options on Thursday, so they may look to Wheeler to go deep into this one.
The Athletics’ offense has struggled the last two weeks, averaging 4.0 runs per game and hitting .243 with a .319 wOBA. With the A’s struggling and his strong recent form, Wheeler should be able to work into the seventh inning and go over his outs recorded prop on Friday night in the late game.
