On Friday evening, the St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the first leg of a three-game series in the shadow of their city’s iconic arch.
At 27-23, the Cardinals are in the midst of a respectable season through the opening months — a bit of a surprise to many in the baseball world given where expectations sat prior to the season. The Diamondbacks aren’t far behind in the Wild Card race at 26-24, but in a loaded NL West, their record places them in fourth place as this series gets going.
Here’s a Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick for the opening game of this series ahead of the 8:15 p.m. EST first pitch.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Cardinals boast a surprisingly fun offense that ranks inside the top-10 of most major stat categories. The team’s .263 AVG ties them for second-best among all MLB rosters with the eighth-best OPS, plus the eighth-most runs scored and seventh-fewest strikeouts. Simply put, these redbirds look good.
Brendan Donovan leads the lineup with 61 hits, a .323 AVG and an .832 OPS. His excellence simply cannot be overstated, while strong contributions from Alec Burleson and Victor Scott place them second and third on the team in batting average at .291 and .275. Lars Nootbar’s .251 AVG isn’t the most impressive, but his .770 OPS says plenty and he leads the team in home runs with seven. Granted, a lack of power hitting remains the team’s largest struggle on offense as the Cards fall just 19th in dingers.
Looking toward the Diamondbacks, the snakes also rank top-10 in most offensive categories and are nothing to scoff at. They’re ninth in team batting average but third in OPS, fifth in runs scored, and fourth in home runs with 70 on the season. These D-Backs are a formidable threat, no doubt.
The star trio of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Josh Naylor fall first (.945), second (.938), and sixth (.791) in OPS among Arizona’s lineup. Carroll leads the team in hits and triples, while his 15 home runs place him first on the roster and second among all NL batters. However, contributions from Geraldo Perdomo and Pavin Smith can’t be ignored — each have a batting average above .291 and an OPS above .890. There’s plenty of difference-makers on this Diamondbacks roster, and realistically, their division’s competitiveness holds them back from a more impressive campaign thus far.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
The Diamondbacks enter the opening game of this series as -122 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cardinals come in as +102 underdogs on the Moneyline themselves. The D-Backs hold +140 odds to cover the -1.5 run line, while the Cardinals are listed at -166 to keep things close at +1.5. As for a game total, the combined game total sits at an even eight runs.
Miles Mikolas gets the start for St. Louis tonight with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through nine starts on the season. He’s posted just 27 strikeouts through 41.1 innings of work, though opposing batters hit just .234 against the right-hander. While not a star name, Mikolas gets the job done — across his last seven games, he’s pitched to the tune of a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
There is a star taking the mound for the other team, though. Zac Gallen sees the starting nod for Arizona, but teams shouldn’t fear him as in years past, at least not at the moment. Gallen’s 5.14 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are far below the numbers which earned him the 2023 NL Cy Young and multiple All-Star nods, though his 59 punchouts in 56.0 innings look about right with his career metrics. The righty’s struggles are tough for the D-Backs, especially with free agency looming.
The top pick for tonight looks like a Corbin Carroll prop bet line. Bettors can snag 3+ total bases for the star at +150 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook — with the third-most total bases in the entire MLB, plenty of home runs, and more triples than anyone but Jarren Duran, Carroll’s total bases bet feels like a good opportunity at plus value.
