On Friday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets meet in the first game of a pivotal three-game series at Citi Field. This isn’t just any series; it’s an NLCS rematch from last year, when the Dodgers ended the Mets’ postseason run with a Game 6 clinching victory. While the Mets look to avenge last year’s heartbreak, the Dodgers, despite a few hiccups this season, remain formidable. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play the NLCS rematch. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
The Mets (30-20) have cooled off after a red-hot start, but they’re still sitting in second place in the NL East. With a team ERA of 2.83 (best in MLB), they’ve relied heavily on pitching to carry them. Griffin Canning (2.47 ERA, 46:17 K:BB ratio) has been one of their standout performers, posting a 5-1 record and allowing just 2.47 runs per game. He’s been excellent at limiting hard contact, evidenced by his 3.34 FIP, which supports his strong season.
But even with their strong pitching, the Mets’ offense has been inconsistent. Pete Alonso, their power threat, leads the team in RBIs (37) but has struggled recently, going 56 at-bats without a home run. Francisco Lindor has provided a spark with 10 home runs and a .329 OBP, but overall, the Mets have been disappointing with runners in scoring position, hitting just .142 (8-for-56) over their last eight games.
The Dodgers (31-19), on the other hand, have also faced their share of struggles. Although their offense continues to steamroll—ranking second in MLB with 81 home runs—they’ve had to rely on young pitchers in the absence of their established arms. Kershaw (2.51 ERA) is back after a rehab stint, but he struggled in his season debut, allowing five earned runs in just four innings against the Angels. As always, Kershaw’s success hinges on his ability to limit hard contact (just 6.9 hits per nine innings), but against a Mets team that leads MLB in ERA, he’s against an obdurate opponent.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense, led by Freddie Freeman (.368 average) and Mookie Betts (.267 with eight home runs), has been potent. Freeman has been on fire, batting .429 in his last five games with three doubles and a walk. Mookie Betts also enters the game red-hot, boasting a .286 average over his last five games, with two home runs and two RBIs. Shohei Ohtani, too, remains a constant threat, ranking first in the league with 17 home runs.
However, the Dodgers’ pitching staff has been hittable, especially considering injuries that have impacted their depth. Their bullpen ranks 24th in home runs allowed (65), and with several key arms sidelined, including Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol, they’ve been forced to lean on inexperienced arms. While their offense picks up the slack, they’ve allowed the ninth-most runs (222) in the league.
Dodgers vs. Mets pick, best bet
This matchup will be a true test for both teams. The Mets’ pitching dominance, led by Canning’s 2.47 ERA and the bullpen’s 2.83 team ERA, stands in stark contrast to the Dodgers’ heavy-hitting offense. The key to this game will lie in whether the Mets’ hitters can break through Kershaw and the bullpen’s vulnerability to the long ball.
With the Mets’ pitching staff holding opponents to just 3.31 runs per nine innings (best in MLB), the Dodgers will need to rely on their offense, which is ranked second in OPS (.814), to break through. However, considering the Mets’ home-field advantage and Kershaw’s questionable form, I expect the Mets to pull off a narrow win in this NLCS rematch.
LFGM.
Best bet: Mets (+100) vs. Dodgers
LFGM—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
