There are heartbreaking losses, and then there’s the 138-135 overtime defeat that the New York Knicks suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night. The Knicks led by nine points with less than a minute to go, but a furious flurry by Pacers guard Aaron Nesmith left New York battered.
The leading rebounder in that game was none other than six-foot-four Josh Hart, but the Knicks are going to need more than eight points from the veteran if they want to tie up the series tonight at Madison Square Garden.
New York is a six-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 224.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Hart.
Best Josh Hart Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Hart to Record a Double-Double (+105)
To underscore just how impressive Hart is as a rebounder, he’s a -145 favorite to record double-digit rebounds despite his height and the fact that, per Basketball Reference’s estimations, he has played 78% of his total minutes at the shooting guard position so far these playoffs. He’s arguably the game’s most well-rounded player, being an above-average rebounder, passer, perimeter defender, finisher, and about an average shooter. That all means that he’s a threat to record a point-rebound double-double (he’s recorded 36 of those this season), a point-assist double-double (10, all but one of which were triple-doubles), or even a rebound-assist double-double (one).
Indiana’s defense is pretty solid overall, excelling especially on closeouts, but since the Pacers play at the league’s third-fastest pace among the playoff teams, the raw numbers allowed are fairly gaudy. So far these playoffs, they’ve allowed the fifth-most points per game, third-most rebounds per game, and only the seventh-fewest assists per game. Plus, the Knicks have plenty of other points of emphasis — Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, for instance, will require even more defensive attention after combining for 78 points in Game 1 — and Hart might slip through the cracks. Don’t underestimate his importance to the team; so far these playoffs, he ranks second in rebound chances, third in time of possession, and second in potential assists.
Josh Hart First Three Point Field Goal Attempt Result – Made (+145)
The advantage of being a good, but not great, three-point shooter while also being a solid slasher is that opponents tend to be scared enough of Hart’s driving, passing, and rebounding abilities that they can live with him taking an open three, even if it’s fairly likely to go in. More than two-thirds of his three-point attempts so far these playoffs have been wholly uncontested, including two of his three attempts and one of his two makes in Game 1. Although he’s arguably shot the ball unsustainably well on wide-open threes so far in the postseason — 50.0%, compared to a 34.1% mark in the regular season — he’s always hit them at a high enough rate where this wouldn’t be a terrible bet. During the regular season, Indiana allowed the ninth-lowest three-point percentage but also benefited from luck; just 37.3% of wide-open triples against it went in, the third-lowest rate of any team. Hart made his first three-point attempt in five of his 13 games so far these playoffs, including in Game 1, and he’s shooting a career-best 41.3% from three so far.
