In basketball, the game is not over until three zeroes appear across the clock. The New York Knicks learned that lesson in brutal, painful fashion in Game 1 against the Indiana Pacers, when they led by nine points with less than a minute to play only to lose after a flurry of Aaron Nesmith three-pointers, a lucky bounce on Tyrese Haliburton’s toe-on-the-line two, and a missed goaltending call in overtime that would’ve given New York a six-point advantage.
Game 1 flipped the script; while, prior to the game, the Knicks were slight favorites to win the series at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Pacers now have a slight -170 edge, with New York at +145. With Game 2 tonight set to tip off at Madison Square Garden at 8 p.m. ET, the Knicks are six-point favorites (-238 Moneyline) and the over-under is set to 224.5. Indiana is +195 on the Moneyline.
I’ve built my favorite same game parlay for tonight’s all-important clash.
Best Same Game Parlay for Pacers at Knicks Game 2
Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks O224.5 Points
Even without overtime, Game 1 was still an offense-fest, with 250 points being scored in regulation. The first half alone included a combined 131 points and 51.1% shooting from the field. With Game 1 clearing the over so easily, both teams could afford to shoot significantly worse and the over would still hit. All in all, three of each team’s last five games have cleared the point total, and that’s with the Cleveland Cavaliers shooting less than 30% from deep in Game 2 of the Pacers’ second round series. These teams own the worst two defenses among the remaining playoff teams, although, in Indiana’s case, that can mostly be attributed to their playing five games against the Cavaliers’ league-best offense.
Nesmith’s all-time heater aside, the models that both of these teams used to put up points in Game 1 seem to be fairly sustainable. The Knicks dominated the interior against a fairly small Pacers team that only has one reliable center, scoring 62 points in the paint and drawing 40 free-throw attempts, while Indiana made 40% of its three-pointers and turned the ball over only seven times. It wasn’t a completely extraordinary performance for either squad; the Pacers were eight-of-21 (38.1%) on wide-open threes, close to their 39.8% mark in the regular season, and committed the third-fewest turnovers of any team. New York, meanwhile, averaged the sixth-most points in the paint during the regular season, and though it rarely got to the charity stripe in the regular season, it earned free throws at a high rate against both the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics.
Mitchell Robinson 8+ Rebounds
Robinson had the third-highest plus-minus among the seven Knicks to play at least 20 minutes in Game 1, and he truly changed the tone of the game during all of his 21 minutes because of his aggression. Ultimately, he ended up finishing with two points and eight boards, including four offensive rebounds that directly resulted in five points and two drawn fouls, although Robinson ended up missing both of his free-throw attempts. Robinson mostly plays when Myles Turner is off the floor, and he was dominant enough against Thomas Bryant in the first quarter that Bryant ended up seeing the bench for almost all of the second and third quarters.
Tom Thibodeau has played a more normal rotation these playoffs than he did during the regular season; Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby all ranked in the league’s top six during the regular season in minutes per game; so far these playoffs, those players rank 22nd, fifth, and eighth, respectively. As a result, Robinson’s minutes have subsequently increased from 17.1 per game in his 17 regular-season games to 18.7 so far these playoffs, and he’s played 20 or more minutes in five of the seven games since the start of the Celtics series. He ranked fifth in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in total rebounding percentage of any player to see an NBA floor this season and has snagged eight or more boards in seven of the 10 games in which he has recorded 20 or more minutes this season.
Tyrese Haliburton 30+ Points + Assists
Bridges wasn’t the answer for Haliburton in Game 1, allowing him to post seven points and five assists on three-for-six shooting in the the 40.1 partial possessions that he guarded him for, and while it’s unrealistic to expect the league’s most overrated player (allegedly) to put up 31 points and 11 assists — the fifth-best performance of his playoff career by game score — again, Haliburton has a reason to play with confidence. He’s scored 31 points in each of his last two games and he toyed with every New York defender unlucky enough to guard him in Game 1. With OG Anunoby, the Knicks’ strongest defender, locking up Pascal Siakam, Haliburton should benefit from increased usage. After Game 1, Haliburton is third among all conference finals participants in time of possession and leads by massive margins in passes received, potential assists, and assist points created.
New York has generally been decent against opposing guards, allowing the seventh-fewest assists per game during the regular season and the fourth-fewest so far these playoffs, but Haliburton is a playmaker who transcends all defense. Also, Haliburton loves floaters, shooting 50.0% from the non-restricted paint so far these playoffs, and he made five of his eight shots from that zone during Game 1 despite not being able to get all the way to the rim. During the regular season, the Knicks conceded the league’s 10th-highest field goal percentage from floater range.
