The NBA Eastern Conference Finals got off to about as thrilling a start as we could hope. Indiana produced a 17-point comeback victory in Madison Square Garden, complete with a Tyrese Haliburton choke sign and an eventual overtime victory.
This shifted the series price to the Pacers being favored by -170 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to advance to the NBA Finals. The pressure will be on New York as Game 2 takes place tonight, with teams only climbing out of the 2-0 series hole at a 7.3% rate across the 465 postseason matchups in which this has occurred.
Looking at the Game 2 odds, the Knicks are six-point favorites and -238 on the moneyline. The Pacers hold +195 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 224.5 for this matchup.
With plenty on the line in Game 2, here are my favorite prop bets as this Knicks vs. Pacers series hits its stride.
Myles Turner Over 14.5 Points (-115)
Indiana leaned on the production of Myles Turner at a significant rate in the early parts of Game 1. The two-time block champion dropped 11 points in the opening eight minutes of the matchup. A few of these long-range jumpers could have been three-pointers if Turner were a few shoe sizes smaller. He finished with just 14 points, and Indiana shifted their offensive attack more onto the shoulders of Tyrese Haliburton and the rest of the guards as the game progressed.
Look for Indiana to attack with Turner at a more consistent rate in Game 2. Karl-Anthony Towns struggled greatly in sticking with the Pacers’ pick-and-pop sets, with Towns’ preference of playing drop coverage playing right into Turner’s strengths. The 29-year-old averaged 15.6 points per game in the regular season and tallied over 14.5 points in 39 of 72 games. He is averaging 16.3 points per game in the postseason and is connecting on 43.2% of his three-point attempts.
Towns is such an important part of the Knicks’ offensive attack that New York must live with some of his defensive shortcomings. It has had much more success with team defense with Mitchell Robinson on the floor, both next to or in place of Towns. Robinson is a high-level defender, but also struggles when forced to guard on the perimeter.
Turner has tallied over 14.5 points in seven of the 11 postseason games he has played. His floor spacing ability will continue to be impactful against this Knicks defense, and look for the Pacers to lean on this at a higher rate in Game 2. He shot 6-for-11 from the floor in Game 1, and if he sees this level of shot volume or greater again, I like Turner’s chances of getting back on track and tallying over 14.5 points.
Jalen Brunson Over 29.5 Points (-120)
Jalen Brunson is at the heart of the production of this Knicks team and cruised past this 29.5 point prop in Game 1 with 43 points. This occurred despite Brunson battling foul trouble and playing only the ninth-most minutes he has in this playoff run, even with the overtime period. After averaging 26.0 points per game across the regular season, the two-time All-Star has increased his scoring output to 29.9 points per game in the postseason. He has tallied over 29.5 points in seven of the 13 games.
Brunson was a major problem for this Pacers team last postseason, averaging 29.7 points per game, and has only leveled up his abilities this season. The Villanova product has a massive offensive responsibility and is posting a monstrous 32.6% usage rate in the postseason. He is attempting 22.5 shot attempts per game while shooting over 45% from the field. He also attempted 14 free throws in the series opener. Indiana mixed up their coverages with Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and even Ben Sheppard attempting to slow down the Knicks’ star.
None of this proved effective enough in Game 1 with Brunson’s 43-point output on 15-of-25 shooting from the field. New York will continue to lean on the scrappy guard to lead the offensive charge, and he will see the ball in his hands plenty. Expect Brunson to see high shot volume once again in Game 2 and set the tone for what will be a desperate effort for this Knicks team. New York will only go as far as Brunson takes them.
Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+140)
While Tyrese Haliburton’s game-tying toe-on-the-line jumper will steal the majority of the leads in the highlight reels, it was Aaron Nesmith who gave the Pacers a puncher’s chance in the comeback. The Vanderbilt product shot 8-for-9 from beyond the three-point arc, with six of these three-pointers coming in the final five minutes and 20 of his 30 points occurring in the fourth quarter.
While this is an outlier performance that will not be replicated to this extent, Nesmith has been a weapon for this Pacers team all year. He shot 43.1% from beyond the three-point arc in the regular season and is connecting at a 53.8% mark from the perimeter this postseason. Nesmith has done a respectable job matching up with Brunson, which expands his opportunities for minutes on the floor, and is attempting 5.9 three-pointers per game in the playoffs. Nesmith connected with over 2.5 three-pointers in six of the 11 games thus far in these playoffs.
Indiana has a variety of players capable of scaling up their offensive roles and stepping up on any given night. But Nesmith is the best three-point shooter on the team by a fairly comfortable margin and will need to continue producing as such. Expect Indiana to have a clear focus on generating three-point looks for the sniper and for Nesmith to continue delivering. Getting +140 odds is great value for this prop.
