OKC thoroughly dominated Game 1, shooting 50% from the field and 52.4% from downtown while holding Minnesota to 34.9% and 29.4% from beyond the arc. The largest lead was 26 points and it scored 34 more points in the paint.
Game 2 was closer from a statistical standpoint, as both teams shot sub-30% from downtown. OKC dished out more assists and scored 14 more points in the paint, yet the largest lead was 24 points.
The stat that stands out in both games is the 22 and 31 points conceded off turnovers.
Minnesota will likely play much better at home, but, but, but….I have some serious concerns. For starters, Rudy Gobert can get played off the court too easily. Julius Randle didn’t play the entire fourth quarter in Game 2! Finally, Anthony Edwards is a superstar, but the Thunder have the horses to make life difficult for him.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC -2.5 over MIN on the road with the total at 218.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (OKC at MIN)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
Captain’s Picks
Anthony Edwards ($17,100 CP): In Game 1, the Thunder stymied Edwards to 5-of-13 shooting for 18 points, nine rebounds, three assists and a block, good for 35.25 FPTS. In Game 2, Edwards exploded for 32 points, nine rebounds, six assists and a block, finishing with 54.75 FPTS. I’m expecting another big Ant game, at home, with the team facing an 0-3 hole. The Timberwolves may not win, but I don’t see Edwards going out like a chump. He’s going to go down fighting. He is just that kind of dude. A 60-burger wouldn’t surprise me.
UTIL Plays
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,200): The Thunder are for sure going to be keyed on Edwards, but he’s matured into quite the playmaker. DiVincenzo often plays in the mid-20 minute range, but I think he gets 30+ in this one. His ability to make it rain will likely be sorely needed in this one. His home/road splits are drastic this season. At home, he’s shooting 45% from the field and 42% from downtown. On the road, those numbers are 39% and 36%, respectively.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($2,200): NAW has been the value play du jour in this series. He’s been priced at sub-3k in both of the first two games and finished with 23 and 15.5 FPTS. Most importantly, he’s played 25 and 28 minutes. And that was the concern because he was often playing in the teens earlier in the playoffs. His size and shooting will likely make the playing time floor relatively high, and the price has decreased.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($12,200): SGA is expensive but he’s probably the safest play on the slate. He is the alpha and omega of the Thunder offense, and more than likely is going to finish in the 40-to-50 FPTS. United States Treasury Bills are often viewed as the safest instruments in the world, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government. In this current environment, SGA may be safer than them!
Fades
Julius Randle ($9,800): Randle shot 2-of-11 in Game 2 and didn’t play the entire fourth quarter. He finished with 19.75 FPTS. In Game 1, he put up 41.5 FPTS. Randle will likely bounce back in Game 3 at home, but I worry about him. If the projected ownership numbers come in super low, then I will likely utilize him, but I have a feeling that many will be counting on a bounceback, too. As a result, the price and ownership make the risk/reward unfavorable for me because I can envision the Thunder making life difficult for him once again.
THE OUTCOME
The Timberwolves are a good team. They are a tough team and I expect them to show fight at home on Saturday. That said, the Thunder are an amazing team. They were tested in the Denver series and seem to be operating at full capacity right now with a laser focus on the Larry O’Brien trophy. I expect a competitive game but with the Thunder pulling away late for the 3-0 series lead.
Final Score: Thunder 116, Timberwolves 108
