After the rain washed away Thursday’s attempt at a baseball game in Fenway, the Orioles and the Red Sox will meet for a doubleheader on Friday. Game 1 gets going at 1:35 p.m. ET, while Game 2 will stay at 7:10 p.m. ET as it was originally scheduled.
The night off might’ve been a refreshing change of pace for Baltimore fans, honestly. The Orioles enter the day 16-32 following a nightmarish beginning to 2025 and it seems like the team’s chance at a third straight postseason appearance is already dead. Baltimore did end its eight-game losing streak on Wednesday, though. That’s something.
Will the Orioles make it two in a row this afternoon? Let’s break it all down with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
The largest reason for Baltimore’s woes this season has been starting pitching. The rotation owns a 5.93 ERA through 48 games, which is the highest mark in the American League and is ahead of only the Rockies in terms of the entirety of baseball. That’s just not where you want to be as a staff.
Cade Povich’s numbers align pretty perfectly with this overall trend. In the left-hander’s 41.1 innings of work, Povich has managed a 5.23 ERA and a 5.84 xERA. Nothing about the sophomore’s campaign has been a positive, yet it’s the long ball that clearly stands out as Povich’s biggest issue. The 25-year-old is surrendering 1.74 home runs per nine in 2025 and a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.6%) doesn’t give the impression that many have been flukes. To put it plainly, Povich has simply been getting hit hard all year long. However, it is worth mentioning that one of the southpaw’s best outings of the season did come all the way back on March 31 versus this same Red Sox lineup. Povich struck out eight of the 20 batters he faced that day.
To be fair to Povich, it’s not like Brayan Bello has performed much better in 2025. Bello had been surviving by the skin of his teeth in the first five outings of his season, but the walls came crashing down on Sunday against the Braves. Bello entered the day with a 2.33 ERA. After 10 hits, five walks and seven earned runs, he left with a 4.02 ERA that is far more in-line with all of his ERA estimators. To wit, in his 31.1 innings of work, Bello possesses a 5.59 xERA and a 5.47 FIP, the direct result of a gargantuan 13.4% walk rate — a figure that would easily be the highest in MLB if Bello had the innings to qualify.
The Orioles can’t pitch, but their lineup is still dangerous, especially in a matchup with a struggling RHP. In fact, Baltimore comes into this tilt with the fifth-highest ISO (.185) and eighth-highest wRC+ (110) versus right-handers. Bello could be in for a very long afternoon. Or a very short one. Depends on your perspective.
Orioles vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Sometimes an unexpected early afternoon game can mess with a pitcher’s rhythm. I wouldn’t say I’m counting on that being the case on Friday, as I don’t really trust either of these starters to begin with, but it couldn’t hurt if you’re someone who is interested in the over. Neither does the fact that Boston sports a 116 wRC+ against lefties this season — the seventh-best mark in baseball.
Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Best Bet: First 5: Over 4.5 Runs (-120)
Both Povich and Bello have an expected ERA well above 5.00 in 2025.
Strong Lean: Alex Bregman 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Bregman is slashing .364/.491/.500 with a 185 wRC+ in his 55 plate appearances against LHPs this season.
