During the first half of Tuesday’s Game 1, the Minnesota Timberwolves looked to be hanging tough against the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder. Then the Thunder did Thunder things, and all of a sudden, the final score made the game look a lot less competitive than it actually was. The Timberwolves built a a four-point lead through the end of two quarters, but in the second half, Minnesota shot 35.0% from the field and 21.7% from deep, while Oklahoma City shot 61.9% from the field and 61.5% from three. Game, set, match, series.
The Timberwolves will seek to exact revenge tonight at the Paycom Center in Game 2, which tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites to win tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 Moneyline) and -650 favorites to win the series overall. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are +235 to win tonight’s game and +475 to win the series.
There are many ways you can bet on the contest at DraftKings Sportsbook, but one of the most rewarding ways is through a same-game parlay. Here’s my favorite for tonight’s game.
Best Same Game Parlay for Timberwolves at Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder O111.5 Points
Tuesday’s game was a tale of two halves for Oklahoma City and for its newly-minted MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In the first half, the Thunder looked genuinely flummoxed by the Timberwolves’ defense, with Gilgeous-Alexander forcing up uncharacteristically bad shots and surprisingly missing four of his five restricted-area shot attempts. SGA finished the half with just 11 points on two-for-13 shooting, and his co-stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren weren’t much more impactful. That all changed in the second half, when Gilgeous-Alexander scored 20 points on eight-for-14 shooting, Williams made five of his 10 shots, and Holmgren scored 13 points and had three combined steals/blocks. Bench players went five-for-seven from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma City’s three-point shooting probably isn’t going to be as good in the second half again tonight, but its second-half brilliance is probably more sustainable than its first-half malaise, given what we’ve seen all season. Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot diet in the second half was fairly healthy — 11 out of his 14 shot attempts came inside the paint, and while he might not go five-for-six from floater range again, two-for-five accuracy from the restricted area is pretty bad for the MVP. Holmgren, too, took smart shots — two of his three restricted-area attempts were dunks, and his one three-point attempt was a wide-open shot from the right corner. The Thunder maybe shouldn’t have gone seven-for-eight on wide-open threes in the second half, but the Minnesota also shouldn’t let them get eight wide-open threes to begin with.
Julius Randle Double-Double
The first half was an absolute Randle masterpiece. He scored 20 points and made five of his six three-pointers in the process, including all five where the nearest defender was more than four feet away. Nobody on Oklahoma City’s roster, whether it was Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso, seemed capable of stopping him. And while he cooled off in the second half, attempting just five shots and making three of them for eight points, he still made an impact by grabbing five rebounds, including three offensive boards. Overall, Randle’s four offensive boards throughout the game directly resulted in seven points, all his own.
The Thunder did a great job holding their own on the boards on Tuesday, out-rebounding the Timberwolves 46-42 after allowing the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season while Minnesota allowed the eighth-fewest. Randle, though, is a decent bet to snag 10 boards in any given game, especially since Oklahoma City tended to guard him with the six-foot-six Williams and the six-foot-five Caruso. He also might play more small-ball center — as he did for parts of the fourth quarter — if the Thunder can successfully play Rudy Gobert off the floor. Randle’s rebound chances were mostly uncontested in Game 1 — just one of his eight boards was challenged, and his average rebound came 12 feet away from the basket — so with a few different bounces and slightly more minutes, he could easily reach 10 rebounds tonight.
Alex Caruso 2+ Steals
For all of Randle’s strengths, the southpaw is one of the most turnover-prone players in the league. He ranks 20th in turnover rate of 179 qualified players this season, and he even coughed up five giveaways in his otherwise impressive Game 1 performance. Randle’s loose handle and occasional overconfidence is a recipe for those who defend him, giving both Williams’ and Caruso’s steals props potentially high value. Caruso went steal-less in Game 1 for just the fifth time these playoffs, but in the big picture, Caruso’s steal rate is nearly double what Williams’ is, he’s better poised to take advantage of shoddy passes or reckless dribbles because of his more roving role, and he has as many multi-steal games these playoffs than Williams does. Plus, if his shot is falling — as it was in Game 1, when he made all three of his three-pointers — he should continue to get around 24 minutes per game. That should be plenty of time for him to get two steals; combined between the regular season and playoffs, he’s recorded two or more steals in all but two games in which he played 24 minutes or more.
