We don’t have the busiest night of baseball in the world — and it’s a schedule that might get even smaller due to rain — but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some home runs hit.
Here are my top three home runs props for Thursday’s action on the diamond.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+320)
Olson’s surface numbers still don’t look anything like 2023, yet it feels like we’re right on the edge of the veteran infielder’s bat taking off. Not only does Olson have a home run in three of his past four games entering play on Thursday, but for the season as a whole, the 31-year-old sports a 98th percentile average exit velocity (94.7), a 96th percentile barrel rate (18.6%) and a 96th percentile hard hit rate (56.6%). Tonight, he’ll draw Trevor Williams of the Nationals, who is currently conceding a .433 wOBA to opposing LHBs. All five of the long balls Williams has surrendered this season have been to lefties.
Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Run (+300)
This actually feels like some decent value on Raleigh, despite it being among the lowest home run odds on tonight’s slate. Raleigh comes into Thursday with 16 long balls in 2025, tied with Aaron Judge for the third-most in baseball and trailing Shohei Ohtani by only a single homer. Yet, Judge’s home runs odds this afternoon were +250. Ohtani’s odds were below +200 last week. What gives? Raleigh might not carry the same name recognition, but he’s a monster. The backstop owns a 98th percentile barrel rate (22.3%) and he’s maintaining a .667 slugging percentage and .386 ISO since May 1. Facing Lance McCullers, whose velocity is waaaaaaay down in 2025, I like Raleigh’s chances of going deep for the second day in a row.
Rhys Hoskins 1+ Home Run (+425)
Full disclosure: I’d be picking a Pirate in this game if I could. However, as of writing, Aaron Civale hasn’t officially been announced as Milwaukee’s starter on Thursday, so there are no lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Just something to keep in mind. Don’t let that take away from what Hoskins has achieved, though. The veteran slugger didn’t hit his first long ball of 2025 until April 15, but since that moment, he’s been locked in. To wit, in his last 125 plate appearances, Hoskins is slashing .349/.440/.623 with a .274 ISO and a 190 wRC+. The man has been quite dangerous in the batter’s box and now he’ll get a chance to face a rookie in the form of Mike Burrows. There’s certainly some things to like about Burrows, yet the RHP has surrendered 1.99 opponent home runs per nine in his 76.2 innings at Triple-A dating back to 2023. That’s a real red flag.
