We’ve got an NL Central battle on Thursday night in Pittsburgh, as the Brewers travel to visit their division rival to begin a four-game series.
It would be an understatement to say that these two clubs have struggled to score in recent weeks. In fact, across the past 30 days, Milwaukee ranks 29th in baseball in wOBA (.284), while the Pirates sit in dead-last (.283). The two teams have also registered bottom-five marks in that span in batting average, ISO and wRC+. Woof.
Still, by MLB rules, this tilt can not end in a scoreless tie. Someone has to score a run. Who will it be? Let’s break it all down with some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
The headline for tonight’s game is the 2025 debut of Mike Burrows, one of a litany of interesting pitching prospects that the Pirates have at the Triple-A level. At No. 15 in Pittsburgh’s system per MLB Pipeline, Burrows is not in the same prospect tier as Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington. However, he has looked quite good with Indianapolis this season, maintaining a 2.51 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 14.4% swinging strike rate across 32.1 innings of work. The red flag? Home runs. The right-hander is allowing 1.67 opponent long balls per nine and, dating back to 2023, Burrows has conceded a whopping 1.99 home runs per nine in his 76.2 innings at Triple-A.
One player who might be able to take advantage of that flaw is Rhys Hoskins. Not many people in the Brewers’ lineup are hitting the ball well at the moment, but Hoskins certainly is. The veteran slugger didn’t hit his first home run of the season until April 15, yet since then, he’s been on absolute fire. In his last 125 plate appearances, Hoskins is batting .349 with a .274 ISO and a 190 wRC+. In his last two games, Hoskins has multiple hits and a long ball. Not too shabby.
There’s was some initial question to who would be getting this start for Milwaukee, but all signs pointed to Aaron Civale coming off the IL and getting the call — and that’s exactly what we’ll see. Civale really struggled in his lone outing in 2025, giving up three home runs in only three innings of work. That’s a troubling trend when you factor in that the right-hander conceded the seventh-most long balls of any pitcher in 2024 (29). Civale will be on a very short leash this evening in terms of his pitch count, with MLB.com’s Todd Rosiak pegging the number at 75-to-85.
Brewers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: NRFI (-110)
While I don’t necessarily trust either of these starters, these have been the two most underwhelming lineups in baseball the past month.
Strong Lean: Rhys Hoskins 1+ Home Run (+425)
Hoskins is on the fire and Burrows has surrendered 1.67 home runs per nine at Triple-A in 2025.
