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How the public is betting Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 2

How the public is betting Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 2

Sports Betting Picks Basketball NBA

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

The Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Timberwolves continue with Game 2 in Oklahoma City on Thursday.

Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Splits

The Thunder took Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves in convincing fashion, winning by 26 points. Even after this defeat, many bettors are expecting the Timberwolves to bounce back in Game 2. When it comes to Moneyline bets, 63% of the handle and 42% of the bets are on Minnesota +235, while 37% of the handle and 58% of the bets are on Oklahoma City -290. While the Timberwolves carry much more appealing odds to peruse on the Moneyline, most of the handle being on Minnesota for Game 2 is surprising after what happened in Game 1. The Thunder are a league-best 41-7 at home this season. They are 6-1 at home this postseason, with a ridiculous 29.8 PPG average margin of victory at home during these playoffs. This Oklahoma City is a historical group that had the best point differential of all time in the regular season, and betting against them on their home floor simply isn’t wise.

For spread bets, it’s a similar story, as 67% of the handle and 55% of the bets are on the Timberwolves +7.5, while 33% of the handle and 45% of the bets are backing the Thunder -7.5. This truly is puzzling after Oklahoma City’s dominant showing in Game 1 and going against the public and backing the Thunder -7.5 is the right move. This season, Oklahoma City is 58-33-4 ATS and 32-14-2 ATS at home, both of which are the best records in the NBA.

As for the total, per usual, the over is seeing most of the action, with 87% of the handle and 78% of the bets are for over 216.5 points. The five matchups between the Thunder and Timberwolves this season are averaging 229.8 PPG, and four of these five games have gone over 216.5 points. However, that lone outlier was Tuesday’s Game 1, which only produced 202 points. Given the score was 114-88 in favor of the Thunder, Game 1 producing such a low score was a result of the Timberwolves’ offense struggling against Oklahoma City’s league-best defense. If you anticipate another blowout in favor of the Thunder, which is always a strong possibility when they are at home, going with the under for Game 2 is logical. On the other hand, if you anticipate a closer affair, the over is an easy choice.

Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:

  1. Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-125)
  2. Jaden McDaniels 25+ Points (+1300)
  3. Anthony Edwards 40+ Points (+950)
  4. Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points (-105)
  5. Anthony Edwards 30+ Points (+185)

Three of the top-five most bet player props for Game 2 belong to Edwards as a scorer, with the guard for 25+ points, 40+ points and 30+ points, in that order of popularity. The idea here is that Edwards is going to bounce back in a big way after losing Game 1, but his track record against the Thunder suggests otherwise. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in defensive rating by a comfortable margin this season, and Edwards is only averaging 21.4 PPG in his five matchups with the Thunder. Of these five matchups, Edwards’ best showing was a 29-point performance, but outside of that, he hasn’t scored more than 23 points against Oklahoma City this season. These popular scoring props for Edwards simply aren’t smart wagers in this brutal matchup vs. the Thunder. Going the opposite direction and backing him for under 25.5 points (-125) is a smart move, as I touched on in my player props piece for Game 2.

The second-most bet player prop for Game 2 is another scoring prop for the Timberwolves, this time with McDaniels for 25+ points at +1300. Again, the Thunder are the best defense in the NBA, and gambling on a defensive first player like McDaniels to score 25+ points in this spot is a mistake. Yes, McDaniels has a 27-point game against the Thunder on his resume this season, but that was a contest that Julius Randle missed. Randle is now fully healthy and in the 80 games that he and McDaniels have played together this season, McDaniels is only averaging 11.5 PPG.

Continuing with the Timberwolves, Randle for over 19.5 points at -105 is the fourth-most bet player prop for Game 2 and is the wager that has the most merit of this top-five. Randle led Minnesota with 28 points in Game 1 while shooting 69% from the field. The forward is averaging 24.3 PPG this postseason, and he has topped 19.5 points in nine of these 11 games. Given his success in Game 1, the Timberwolves should focus on getting Randle the ball more in Game 2 and exceeding 19.5 points is a realistic outcome for the thriving big man, regardless of this poor matchup vs. the Thunder.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.