The Oklahoma City Thunder’s 68 wins during the regular season were impressive, but teams of that caliber always focus on the 16 they need to pick up between late April and mid-June as they seek to raise the most coveted prize in all of basketball: the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
The Thunder’s count now stands at nine down and seven to go after their 114-88 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night gave them a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Oklahoma City would put itself squarely in the pantheon of all-time great squads if it can close out its historic regular season with a title. It’ll seek its 10th win tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET as Game 2 tips off at Paycom Center.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-290 Moneyline), with the point total set to 216.5. Minnesota, meanwhile, is +235 on the Moneyline.
Timberwolves at Thunder Game 2 preview, prediction
Game 1 was a highly-competitive defensive affair…until it wasn’t. The Timberwolves got off to an incredible start in the first half behind a dominant performance by Julius Randle, who made five of his six three-pointers in the opening 24 minutes en route to 20 points. In that opening half, newly-minted MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just two-for-13 from the field and scored 11 points only because he was able to consistently get to the free throw line. Gilgeous-Alexander’s co-stars, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, were largely invisible; Williams made just two of his eight shots and Holmgren only attempted three.
Mark Daigneault must give brilliant halftime speeches, though, because Oklahoma City blitzed opponents by a league-best 14 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter during the regular season, a figure surpassed only by its first-quarter net rating and the best third-quarter figure since the Stephen Curry-Kevin Durant Golden State Warriors posted a plus-17.3 net rating in the third quarter in 2017-18. Tuesday night was no different; the Thunder outscored Minnesota 32-18 in the third quarter to open up a 10-point lead before winning the fourth quarter 38-22 to blow the doors off the game entirely. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 20 second-half points and Williams and Holmgren added 13 each. If the first half was a muted discussion, the second half was a statement.
I don’t think either half fully underscores the competitive balance in this series, though; Oklahoma City was the beneficiary of shooting variance in the second half, making seven of its eight wide-open triples after surviving an uncharacteristically poor performance on layups by Gilgeous-Alexander in the first half. The opposite can be said of the Timberwolves; Randle made all five of his open or wide-open triples in the first half, and in the second half, a full 40% of Minnesota’s shots were wide open and just four of the 16 went in.
Timberwolves at Thunder pick, best bet
Headed into the series, the Timberwolves were theoretically well-equipped to exploit one of the Thunder’s few true weaknesses — the fact that it allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season. Minnesota has a well-rounded roster with the personnel to win in several different ways, and between the six-foot-nine Randle, four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, and the hyper-athletic Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves should’ve had enough size and strength to control the glass like the Denver Nuggets did on their way to a Game 1 victory.
However, Oklahoma City managed to play Gobert off the floor, and he recorded zero minutes in the fourth quarter. Beyond the Stifle Tower, the home side also did a tremendous job challenging most of Minnesota’s biggest threats, contesting Edwards on five of his nine rebounds and three of Reid’s eight. The Thunder also snuffed it out immediately when the Timberwolves did crash the glass — they recorded just 12 second-chance points and 20 points in the paint all game, the latter of which was 30 points fewer than any other team in their series-opening game. If Oklahoma City can continue to excel in the paint, a theoretical Minnesota edge, this series could be over.
The Timberwolves are going to need more from Edwards. The fifth-year guard only attempted 13 shots, fewer than sixth man Donte DiVincenzo and tied for the seventh-fewest that he has taken in a game all season. He tweaked his ankle late in the first quarter and missed the first five minutes of the second period, so perhaps his lack of production can be attributed mostly to soreness in the ankle, which would be a positive sign given the 48 hours between games. Still, he was largely blanketed by Cason Wallace, attempting just two shots, dishing out one assist, and turning it over once in the 26.3 partial possessions that Wallace guarded him. He did get more than four feet of separation on 11 of his 13 shots, and he likely won’t go zero-for-seven on attempts with the nearest defender between four and six feet away again, but only one of his shots came at the rim, four came in the midrange, and seven were above-the-break threes. That’s not a recipe for efficiency.
Jaden McDaniels, who was Minnesota’s hero in the first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers and who scored double-digit points on fairly efficient shooting in every single second-round game, was virtually invisible. He scored only seven points on three-for-five shooting from the field, coughed up three turnovers, and fouled out in just 23 minutes. That’s the downside of drawing the Gilgeous-Alexander assignment; the Canadian ranked in the top five in personal fouls drawn for the fourth consecutive season. McDaniels was whistled five times for fouls against SGA, usually when Gilgeous-Alexander would initiate contact on a drive and then exaggerate the impact. Foul trouble aside, McDaniels’ defense on the MVP was fine, so his impact might depend on whether Scott Foster, Tony Brothers, and Pat Fraher swallow their whistles tonight.
I’m just not sure that McDaniels and Edwards staying out of foul trouble will be enough. Oklahoma City’s shot diet in Game 1 was picture-perfect, with 51 of its 82 shot attempts coming in the paint, and it attempted only 21 three-pointers after being a mediocre deep-shooting team throughout the playoffs so far. Tonight’s game will likely be closer than Game 1 was if shooting variance swings back in the Timberwolves’ favor, but the Thunder have a more sustainable model for success on both sides of the ball.
