The Pacers and Knicks give us a throwback Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 1 tipping off on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden. While the storyline will be the history between these two teams, let’s not forget how improbable this matchup was. DraftKings Sportsbook offered odds prior to the postseason on what the Conference Finals matchups would be, and New York vs. Indiana was priced at 40-1.
We’re bound to see plenty of Reggie Miller vs. Patrick Ewing highlights, but this history of this matchup is as recent as last season. The Knicks jumped out to a 2-0 lead on the Pacers in the second round, but injuries caught up to New York, and Indy won a Game 7 at MSG. We should be in store for another competitive series this time around.
Let’s breakdown some plays on the Eastern Conference Finals.
Game 1 Player Prop: Bennedict Mathurin OVER 10.5 Points (-115) – 1-unit
Mathurin has consistently played well against the Knicks in his young career. In nine games, he’s averaging 19.8 points per game, while playing just over 30 minutes. Mathurin has gone for 15 or more points in eight of those nine meetings. If we focus in on just this season, he’s been even better. Mathurin faced the Knicks three times in the regular season, averaging 25.3 points. With numbers like that, you’d assume there has to be a catch, and there is. Mathurin had his best game of the season against New York back in November, dropping 38 points in 41 minutes, in a game that Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard were both sidelined.
However, those guys both played in the other two matchups, and Mathurin thrived in his typical role off the bench. He scored 18 and 20 points in those two games, averaging 27 minutes as a reserve in those meetings. If we take out Game 4 against Cleveland, where Mathurin was ejected after playing just one minute, he is 5-3 to the over on 10.5 points this postseason. Mathurin averaged just over 16 points during the regular season, and given the matchup against a slew of wings that the Knicks play, the series could justify a larger role. I’ll back Mathurin to continue to thrive in this matchup.
Game 1 ATS: Pacers +4.5 (-110) – 1-unit
The Pacers got off to a slow start in 2024, but have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the second half of the season. They enter the ECF 7-3 ATS in the postseason, not just covering their last five as an underdog, but winning them all outright. Indy also comes into MSG at 6-1 ATS over its last seven road games overall, dating back to the regular season.
While the Knicks are 8-4 in the postseason, they’ve been playing in tight games throughout. Five of their wins have come by three or fewer points — three against Detroit and the first two games in Boston. The Pacers have been clicking offensively during this playoff run, shooting over 50% from the field and over 40% from downtown. While the Celtics may have shot themselves in the foot by staying committed to the three-pointer, they also missed a ton of open shots. If the Pacers continue knocking down from the perimeter, the shots the Knicks’ defense has been surrendering could finally catchup to them.
While Boston was bombs away from beyond the arc, the Pacers are attempting 34.7 per game during the postseason. There’s more balance to Indy’s offense, which puts more pressure on a shaky New York defense. This feels like more of a coin flip series, so I lean to the Pacers at plus-money. Indy has a good shot to steal this game, but if we get another dramatic finish that the Knicks have often been involved in, I’ll take the points in Game 1 of what should be a terrific series.
Series Total Games: OVER 5.5 Games (-170) – 1.5-units
I expect this to be a very competitive series. It’s a clash of styles, as the Knicks will try and slow the game down, while the Pacers will try to get out and run and use their depth. I feel Indiana has advantages coaching and on defense, but the Knicks have the best player on the floor. It should be a back and forth series that includes multiple wins by the road team. I lean to the Pacers, but am more confident we see a long series here. Some shops have OVER 5.5 games priced as high as -225, so the -170 price at DraftKings Sportsbook is a bargain, despite the juice.
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