On Wednesday night, the last two teams remaining in the NHL’s Western Conference clash as the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers face off in a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final. While the Stars are the favorites to win and advance to the Stanley Cup now that they’re fully healthy and hitting their stride, betting against Connor McDavid and a fear-inspiring offense feels like a difficult choice. Which side will come out on top and punch their ticket to the final round?
Here’s an in-depth look at Stars vs. Oilers, including a series prediction and top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stars vs. Oilers series preview
Dallas Stars
Sure, hockey’s played on ice. That doesn’t mean the southern teams can’t hold their own, though — the Dallas Stars are competing in their third consecutive Western Conference Final, and this time, they’re out for revenge against the team which bounced them last postseason.
The fact Dallas is even still alive in this postseason remains an astounding accomplishment in its own right. Despite missing Miro Heiskanen, a top-three defenseman in the NHL as well as Jason Robertson for the entire first round, this team survived and advanced until they could get healthy. Both players returned in round two as the Stars dispatched the Presidents’ Trophy winners, and with the lineup finally at full strength, they’re a force.
Dallas’ offensive numbers this postseason don’t look awe-inspiring with just 34 goals in 13 games, an average of 2.62 per contest on a meager 24.8 shots a night. However, that doesn’t account for their stars’ absence — while they were out, Mikko Rantanen delivered elite production and leads all postseason skaters with 19 points, including two hat tricks. Thomas Harley ranks second on the team with 11 points (and the game-winning goal to advance last round), followed by Roope Hintz with 10.
The defense remains the Stars’ strong suit throughout this playoff run. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has carried the team when need be, and while his .919 SV% and 2.47 GAA are impressive, the eye test looks even better. After Heiskanen’s return in Game 4 against the Jets, the team only allowed one goal in two of three games against a talented attack. They’ll need to replicate that performance in the WCF.
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers remain too good to count out, even against these Stars. Their postseason journey has been chaotic to say the least after a high-adrenaline first round and a much less competitive, but still heart-pounding series against the Golden Knights. As it turns out, defense is overrated — who needs to stop shots when you can just score five goals a game?
The Oilers average 3.91 goals per contest across their 11 playoff outings so far while keeping plenty of pressure on opponents with 32.8 shots on average. They’ve scored four or more goals six times in those 11 games with another couple contests with at least three netted shots. The duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl need no introduction as each come in with the second and third-most playoff points at 17 and 16. Their presence makes life easier for every teammate on the ice, evidenced by Evan Bouchard’s 12 points, followed by a slew of contributions by depth options like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Corey Perry.
Their fatal flaw? Edmonton’s play between the posts looks unpredictable at best and plain-and-simple poor at worst. They rotated between Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard due to a couple of rough performances by Skinner to start the playoffs, then an injury to Pickard which left them reinserting their original starter. Despite allowing 15 goals through his first three postseason starts, Skinner caught fire over the Oilers’ last two games to post a shutout in both. Benching him after this bounce looks difficult, but regardless, neither Edmonton goalie boasts a SV% above .888, which may give them trouble this round.
Keys to the Series
Dallas maintains a crystal-clear advantage in the goalie battle thanks to Oettinger’s heroics over the Stars’ run. Notably, the 26-year-old sits atop the playoff saves leaderboard with 362 stops so far. The next closest netminder is Washington’s Logan Thompson with 266, nearly a full 100 saves fewer than Oetter has to his name. After weathering Nathan MacKinnon with a leaky defense in the first round, Oettinger can probably handle Edmonton’s attack, especially with Heiskanen back on the ice. Still, the task won’t be easy.
The special teams comparison shows a slight edge for Dallas, as well. The Stars hit at a 30.8% clip on their power play opportunities (12 GF, 39 OPP), while the Oilers’ penalty kill comes in at a poor 66.7% (11 GA, 33 OPP), the worst of any remaining playoff team by a margin of 19.4 percentage points. Edmonton’s struggling PK unit looks like a significant red flag, especially against a Dallas squad which has done a ton of damage on the power play in these playoffs. Conversely, the Oilers’ PP% sits at a respectable 25.0% (six GF, 24 OPP), but the Stars’ kill stops opponents at an 86.1% rate (six GA, 43 OPP).
Here’s where the Oilers see an advantage — their depth has done more over this playoff run than Dallas’ has. Seven Edmonton skaters have logged at least seven points. The aforementioned depth players have performed admirably, and even Evander Kane and Connor Brown have gotten in on the action. The Stars are just as deep as the Oilers, but you wouldn’t know it from the point totals. Only five Dallas skaters have seven-plus points to their name. While Heiskanen and Robertson are working their way back to speed, Mason Marchment and Jamie Benn have been noticeably cold with just four and three points apiece.
Stars vs. Oilers series prediction, pick
DraftKings Sportsbook lists both the Stars and Oilers at -110 odds to win this series, indicating just how close things might look over the best-of-seven format. Really, either side can come out on top in this one.
Oettinger has been fantastic lately, but this Oilers attack is an entirely different beast from what Dallas has seen so far. McDavid is world-class, and even though Draisaitl doesn’t look totally right out there, he’s still producing like a superstar, too. Dallas’ offense will have to work a little harder to keep up with their opponent on the offensive side of things.
The Stars simply need another player or two to come online at the right time. Rantanen has carried them through much of the postseason in his teammates’ absence, and now, it’s time for someone else to step up. Heiskanen looks like he’s already close to his usual self, but if Robertson can find his shooting form, he’ll become a huge boon for an offense which has certainly seen some off nights. The same goes for Marchment and Benn, as well as Matt Duchene, who scored the fourth-most goals on the team in the regular season but has been noticeably quiet so far this postseason.
Even with this hot Oilers offense, the Stars have the hotter goaltender and can work to slow things down and control the pace of play. Both teams boast a handful of overtime wins and comeback victories this postseason, but Dallas look a little bit tougher in that regard. It’ll be a dogfight, so watch for this series to go seven games.
Top Pick: Series Total Games – 7 (+200)
