The Yankees reign atop the AL East, while the Rangers are struggling to find consistency on the road. With Jacob deGrom on the mound for Texas, this game hinges on whether the Rangers’ ace can silence the Yankees’ league-leading offense. New York’s lineup is loaded, led by Aaron Judge’s MVP-caliber season, but deGrom’s dominance is as good an equalizer as any. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Rangers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Rangers prediction, preview
DeGrom has been a monster this season, with a 2.29 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 51 innings. His ability to dominate batters has been on full display, allowing just a .179 batting average over his last four starts. DeGrom’s 13.6 K/9 rate and 0.98 WHIP demonstrate his dominance. Against the Yankees, he’s posted a 3.22 ERA and a sub-.200 opponent batting average. With deGrom’s strikeout rate (9.35 K/9) and limited home run rate (0.9 HR/9), the Yankees face a serious challenge at the plate. His 2.35 FIP shows he’s been better than his ERA, underlining his elite command.
In contrast, Ryan Yarbrough, while serviceable, doesn’t match up against deGrom’s level of dominance. Yarbrough has a 3.70 ERA, but his K/9 rate sits at a modest 7.42. He’s allowed four home runs over his 24.1 innings this season, which spells danger against a Rangers lineup that ranks third in slugging percentage (.451) and has the potential to capitalize on Yarbrough’s pitching flaws. With Yarbrough only stretched out for limited innings, the Yankees’ bullpen, although solid (3.37 ERA), could be exposed later in the game.
Offensively, Aaron Judge is the undeniable force for New York. Leading the league in home runs with 16 and batting .403, Judge has been nothing short of unstoppable. His 1.175 OPS and 43 RBIs place him squarely in the MVP race. His consistent ability to knock in runs, even when the Yankees struggle to put it all together, has been the backbone of their offense. Teammates like Cody Bellinger, who has a .453 slugging percentage, and Anthony Volpe, who adds speed and power, round out a potent lineup. Despite the Yankees’ impressive offensive stats, deGrom’s ability to neutralize Judge and the crew will be the key to Texas’s success.
Rangers vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The Rangers, though, have the tools to strike against Yarbrough that might mean it doesn’t have to be all deGrom. Corey Seager leads the team with a .486 slugging percentage, which is fine. Adolis García, with 10 home runs and 24 RBIs, is probably the most key piece in Texas’s middle of the order. However, they’ve struggled to consistently string together hits, ranking 26th in batting average (.227) and 27th in on-base percentage (.288), which could hinder them against a Yankees team that ranks first in on-base percentage (.347) and second in slugging (.475). Still, deGrom’s mastery of the mound gives the Rangers a real shot tonight.
Betting trends point toward a tight game. Texas has covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 Wednesday games as favorites. Despite their offensive strength, New York hasn’t been immune to suppression in the face of elite pitching.
Given deGrom’s current form, the Yankees’ offensive reliance on Judge, and Yarbrough’s vulnerabilities, the Rangers at +102 offer good value. Texas steals one in the City.
Best bet: Rangers (+100) at Yankees
Texas steals one in the City.—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
