The Oklahoma City Thunder kicked off the Conference Finals with a convincing 114-88 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. The action will shift over to the Eastern Conference as the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers tonight. This will mark New York’s first time past the second round of the playoffs for the first time since the 1999-2000 season, while Indiana will be looking to avenge their Conference Finals loss to the Celtics last year.
It has taken the Pacers just 10 games to reach this point, defeating the Bucks and Cavaliers 4-1 in each series. They last played on May 13th, giving them more than a week off and a rest advantage ahead of Game 1. The Knicks have won both of their opening two series by 4-2 margins. Their Game 6 clinching victory over the Celtics was on Friday, May 16th, which gives them five days of rest.
Looking at the Game 1 odds, the Knicks are 4.5-point favorites and -180 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pacers hold +150 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 222.5 for this matchup.
As these two teams prepare for the opening battle of this rekindled rivalry matchup, here are my favorite prop bets for Game 1.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-140)
After being perennially mentioned in trade rumors for a large portion of his career, Myles Turner has proven extremely important to this Indiana Pacers team. He has carved out a key niche in this league and on this team, being one of the few players to be capable of spacing the floor from the perimeter and serving as a high-level shot blocker on defense. Turner was a difference maker in last year’s matchup with this Knicks team and should be counted on to do the same this time around.
Across the regular season, Turner averaged 15.6 points per game and shot 39.6% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.5 perimeter shots per game. He averaged 2.2 made three-pointers and connected with over 1.5 three-pointers in 45 of the 72 games played. Turner is averaging 16.5 points per game in the playoffs and shooting 45.0% from deep on 4.0 shots per game. He made at least one three-pointer in nine of the 10 playoff games thus far, and has connected with over 1.5 three-pointers in four games. The two-time block champion also made over 1.5 three-pointers in five of the seven postseason games against the Knicks last year.
The Knicks ranked 26th in opponent three-point percentage in the regular season, with Karl-Anthony Towns struggling to defend pick-and-pop coverages. They have been especially vulnerable to opponent big men who can shoot, and Turner is among the best in this category. Expect him to build off his strong start to the playoffs, and for Indiana to have this circled as a part of their game plan. Count on Turner seeing solid volume from the perimeter and connecting with over 1.5 made three-pointers in the series opener as the Pacers attack this weakness of the Knicks.
Jalen Brunson Over 36.5 Points & Assists (-115)
The New York Knicks will only go as far as Jalen Brunson takes them, and you can’t argue with the results thus far. The Knicks’ captain is averaging 28.8 points and 7.7 assists per game this postseason, after producing 26.0 points and 7.3 assists in the regular season. Brunson has tallied over 36.5 combined points and assists in six of the 12 playoff games thus far.
While Indiana is not as poor defensively as their reputation sometimes indicates, there is a much clearer pathway for Brunson to produce a strong statistical outing in comparison to the two previous series. Brunson had success against all three of his primary defensive matchups last year against Indiana. He scored 67 points with Andrew Nembhard guarding him, 68 against Aaron Nesmith, and 26 points when facing T.J. McConnell while shooting 44.0% or above from the field against each.
Indiana is a better overall defensive team than they were last year, but Brunson is attempting 22.3 field goals, 7.8 free throws, and logging a 31.9% usage rate across this playoff run. Expect a conscious effort by New York to put Tyrese Haliburton in coverage with Brunson, and for the Knicks star to have success as both a scorer and playmaker. He has seven playoff games with 29 or more points in this postseason run, and is plenty capable of picking Indiana apart as a passer if they send double-teams his way. After playing major minutes just about every other night over the past two weeks, expect Brunson to look rejuvenated following a few days of rest and tally over 36.5 combined points and assists to set the tone for the Knicks in this series.
T.J. McConnell to Record 10+ Points (+245)
One of the bigger X-factors in this series will be the level of impact of T.J. McConnell. He is one of the best energy guys in the NBA and can swing a game in just a short amount of minutes. McConnell is ready to pick up all 94 feet and will be thrown on Brunson for stretches to mix up their coverage. He also provides a punch offensively and is a master and maneuvering through the paint to get to his short pull-up spots.
So far in this playoff run, McConnell is averaging 8.6 points per game after dropping 9.1 per night in the regular season. He has tallied 10+ points in five of the 10 playoff games thus far. McConnell also averaged 11.8 points per game in last year’s playoff run, including scoring 10+ points in five of the seven matchups with the Knicks.
While New York’s biggest contributors are clear and will see major minutes every night, Indiana has several guys who can step up on any given night. McConnell is firmly in this mix and will have nights when he swings the matchup outlook completely. He benefits from not seeing a ton of defensive attention, and getting +245 odds for this feels like great value. I am backing Game 1 to be one of the matchups in which McConnell makes a massive impact in, and backing the scrappy guard to tally 10+ points for the sixth time in this playoff run.
