Major League Baseball has a full Wednesday of action lined up, with action throughout the afternoon and evening. Seven games are scheduled for under the lights, so let’s zero in on some home run props to light up on DraftKings Sportsbook. Home run props are fun ways to flex by hitting some long-shot bets that go yard. Looking at the options and matchups on the board this Wednesday, let’s take a look at my top three home run props. Today, I’m feeling good about Bryce Harper, Tyler Soderstrom and Wyatt Langford.
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Wednesday, May 21.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryce Harper to record 1+ home runs (+270)
Harper and the Phillies are at Coors Field for the third game in their four-game set against the Rockies. Even though they’re facing a lefty, Carson Palmquist is far from a matchup you need to avoid. Palmquist gave up five runs in four innings in his MLB debut last week and lefties went 3-for-4 against him.
Harper has actually hit four of his seven homers against lefties this season and has a .372 wOBA on that side of the split. He has only seven homers on the season, but he has been hitting the ball very well, posting a 51.4% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrel rate.
Over his last 10 games, Harper is hitting a sizzling .444 with one home run but a 60.6% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate. He hasn’t homered in nine games but since he has been hitting the ball so well and gets a good matchup at Coors Field, I’ll take him to end his drought as one of my top home run props for Wednesday.
Tyler Soderstrom to record 1+ home runs (+360)
Soderstrom also seems due to go deep and gets a favorable matchup in homer-friendly Sutter Health Park on Wednesday night. As I laid out in today’s MLB Stacks, the Athletics are in a great spot at home against Jack Kochanowicz. Especially relevant to this prop is the fact that Kochanowicz has served up seven homers in his nine starts and six have been hit by left-handed hitters.
Early this season, Soderstrom’s odds would have been much shorter in this spot since he smashed nine homers in his first 19 games. Since then, he has only one home run in 30 games, but that did come recently. He hit his 10th homer of the year seven games ago and has an impressive 72.7% hard-hit rate over his last eight games. He’s only hitting .182 (6-for-33) over that span, but he’s hitting the ball very well with little to show for it.
Facing Kochanowicz at home is a great matchup for Soderstrom to get some positive regression, so I like him at this number to go yard Wednesday in Sacramento.
Wyatt Langford to record 1+ home runs (+500)
The Rangers are in the Bronx facing lefty Ryan Yarbrough and the Yankees. While the weather could be an issue, if the rain holds off, it could be a nice home run spot since Yarbrough has given up four homers in 24 1/3 innings this season, giving him the highest HR/9 of the starters on the evening slate. Yarbrough has been slightly more hittable by lefties but has given up two home runs on each side of his splits.
Langford has nine homers in 39 games this season with three against lefties and four on the road. He has a .390 wOBA against lefties and .417 wOBA on the road, making it the stronger side of both those splits.
In his last nine games, Langford has three homers and eight barrels with a 33.3% barrel rate and a 62.5% hard-hit rate. He’s had multiple hard-hit balls in six of those nine games and is making great contact. He has been productive out of the second spot of the batting order for the Rangers and if the rain holds off, he’ll be my favorite long shot in tonight’s home run props.
