This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Fort Worth, Texas, and Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is an invitational event that hosts 120 PGA pros and will be headlined by last week’s PGA winner, Scottie Scheffler.
The event itself is hosted by Colonial Country Club, a longer, tougher Par 70 that features smaller greens and fairways and typically plays very tough due to green speeds and the overall tightness of the course. It’s an old school, classic design that forces players to rely on short game and precision vs power.
I wrote a little about the course (see below) in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the Charles Schwab Challenge on DK Network.
“Colonial Country Club plays as a traditional par 70 that lands just under 7,300 yards in length. The course features tight fairways with several old trees that are very much in play and often block approaches on off-center tee shots. That, along with a couple of severe doglegs and smaller greens, means there is a big premium on accuracy. Driving accuracy numbers at Colonial are usually quite below PGA TOUR averages, and players will often club down quite a bit off the tee simply due to the setup.
To make things even tougher, there’s a plethora of bunkers throughout the course, and play from the sand is something to keep note of this week — there are some great bunker players in the list of past winners (Na, Kisner, and Jordan Spieth, to name a few). The bentgrass greens are also smaller than average, and water is surprisingly in play on this parkland course on six holes to keep things interesting. As a result, a pure-power game often doesn’t play that well here, and accuracy with mid-irons and strong bentgrass putting has been the key to success for many past winners.
The venue didn’t play that much differently in 2024 than it has in recent years, but tougher tee shots on multiple par 3s undoubtedly put a bigger emphasis on ball striking, and only one player (the winner Davis Riley) managed to end the week at double-digits under par. However, if the greens do play more receptive (in the past they have often dried out as the week went on), we could see scoring be somewhat easier than it has been the past couple of seasons.”
Colonial is very much a thinking man’s course and as a result, we have seen a lot of veterans perform well at this week’s event. Course history definitely factors in this week, and players trending well on approach and putting will be ones to target to have good weeks. As per usual, I’ll give you my thoughts on a few players I’m bullish on and also those I’m keen on fading, below.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”).
Maverick McNealy Better Than 21.5 Finishing Position
McNealy only managed a T-33 last week, but he did gain over 3.5 strokes off the tee and was positive on his approaches for the second straight week. The American has looked rock solid this season at numerous stops, posting a T-2 at Genesis early in the season on the back of a final round 64, and he also notched T-3 finishes at the RBC and Valero.
Just like the RBC, this week’s event comes after a major and on a shorter course that should suit McNealy’s skillset just a little better. He typically handles himself well around tougher greenside setups and is also an elite spike putter. He’s also taken to this venue, having played Colonial six times already, finishing T-17 at this event last season. He has one of the lower finishing totals this week, but a top-20 for him this week seems well within reach.
Andrew Novak Worse Than 29.5 Finishing Position
Novak had a solid run early in the season that culminated with a win at the Zurich Classic team event with Ben Griffin. While I don’t hate this setup for him, he’s started to regress a little with the all-important putter and missed the cut last week at the PGA while losing over 2.5 strokes on approach. That’s a little troublesome and something that may not be fixed in a week, especially with another tough course on hand.
Novak has also only played this venue twice with limited success, notching a T-40 here last season and a missed cut in 2023. He’s clearly taken a step up in performance this season, but with some natural regression starting to take place, I see this week as a great time to fade him and a missed cut this week, even with the smaller field, wouldn’t be overly shocking.
Keith Mitchell Worse Than 26.5 Finishing Position
Mitchell missed the cut for us last week, which was disappointing, and if I’m being honest, his prospects for this week don’t look that great either. Colonial is a very tight precision course, which takes away some of the advantages he has off the tee. He’s also very up and down around the greens and lost 2.1 strokes ATG last week at Quail. Maybe he bounces back in that area, but his approaches have only been mediocre of late, so there isn’t a huge margin of error if you’re looking to be bullish on him this week.
I’d much rather take the other side and fade a higher finish. He does make a lot of cuts, but in three starts at Colonial, he’s never finished better than T-37, so even if he makes the weekend, his chances of a low round on Sunday seem slim.
Brian Harman Better Than 27.5 Finishing Position
Unlike Mitchell, Harman is exactly the sort of veteran who benefits from a setup like Colonial. He’s not super long off the tee but is a great spike putter and still very solid around the greens. While he’s regressed a little since his win at the Valero, this week is a nice spot for him to pick things up again, and he’s back in Texas where he won just last month.
Overall, Harman has finished top-30 in four of his last five starts at Colonial and would also likely benefit from tougher conditions, given how well he scrambles and putts. Despite the lackluster PGA Championship finish, I’m more than OK being bullish on him this week in Pick6 lineups.
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