The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial Country Club will be the host course, and measures as a 7,289-yard par 70 with Bentgrass greens.
This will be a standard full-field event with a 36-hole cut. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be in attendance this week in his home state and is the overwhelming betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +240, while Jordan Spieth (+2200), Daniel Berger (+2200), Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) and Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) round out the top of the board.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Davis Riley to win (+5000)
After an abysmal start to the season where he missed five straight cuts, Riley has looked quite competent since the end of February, carding three top-seven finishes over his past eight starts. His most recent came last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished T2 behind Scottie Scheffler and gained 1.9 or more strokes in all four major Strokes Gained categories.
Riley seems to be peaking at just the right time, because we are heading back to arguably his favorite course on the PGA TOUR in Colonial. The 28-year-old picked up his first career win at this very event one year ago, edging the aforementioned Scheffler by four shots. Riley also finished T4 at this event back in 2023, and ranks No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained per round at this course for his career.
Prior to last week, Riley had finished T21 at the Masters and solo seventh at the Valspar, two difficult tracks where birdies are hard to come by. The key for him will be his iron play, as he gained six strokes on approach at Augusta and 6.7 at the Valspar. Not many people over the past few years can say they beat Scottie Scheffler, but Riley is one of them.
We would likely not be getting this 50/1 number on him if Scheffler was in the field.
Mackenzie Hughes to win (+6500)
Prior to last week’s missed cut at the PGA Championship where he uncharacteristically lost 6.4 strokes putting in two rounds, Hughes had been absolutely rolling. The Canadian had posted three top-10 finishes across his past four starts, including top-three finishes at both the RBC Heritage and Myrtle Beach Classic.
During those those two top-threes, Hughes gained 2.4 or more strokes on approach in both, before gaining 2.0 in his second round alone last week at Quail Hollow. He would have easily made the cut if not for his cold putter, as he most recently gained whopping 8.8 strokes on the greens at Myrtle Beach, making last week look even more like an outlier.
Hughes has a mixed bag of history at Colonial in his career, having missed the cut in three-of-five starts. However, he did post a T8 back in 2019. With the way he’s been playing of late, I like getting 65/1 on a two-time PGA TOUR winner in this spot.