The Mets are a’scuffling, having lost five of their last six, including two tough defeats to Boston (2-0, 3-1). They’ve been utterly stagnant at the plate, scoring just eight runs in their last five games. This is in stark contrast to their early season form. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been a more consistent force, winning three of their last four and taking control in both games against the Mets, and the series at large. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Red Sox and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction, preview
Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA) has been electric this season, holding opponents to a .203 average and striking out 73 batters over 63 innings. His 2.00 ERA is supported by a 3.16 xERA, suggesting his success is sustainable. Over his last four outings, he’s been even sharper, posting a 2.08 ERA, and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start during this stretch. Against a Mets lineup that’s posted a mere 97 wRC+ over the last 14 days, Crochet is primed for another strong outing.
On the flip side, Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA) has been inconsistent. While he’s capable of racking up strikeouts, his control issues—evidenced by a 1.38 WHIP—have led to costly mistakes. Over his last three starts, Megill has allowed 12 earned runs in just 12.1 innings, inflating his ERA and giving up hard contact. His struggles on the road, where he’s allowed 5.25 ERA compared to 1.86 at home, only add to his vulnerabilities in this matchup. Facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 5th in the league with a .423 slugging percentage, Megill is in for a tough night.
The Red Sox offense, led by Rafael Devers (.286 AVG, 9 HR, 38 RBIs) and Alex Bregman (.303 AVG, 11 HR), is potent. They rank 7th in scoring offense, averaging 4.84 runs per game, and their .423 team slugging percentage places them in the top-five teams in the league. Jarren Duran, hitting .264 with a .314 OBP and 28 RBIs, has been on fire lately. He’s batting .333 over the last 10 games and has increased his OPS to .756, making him a significant threat at the top of the lineup.
Megill’s struggles with allowing power, especially against left-handed batters, put Boston in a favorable position. The Mets have been much weaker on the road, posting a .247 team batting average and ranking 12th in scoring offense. Their inability to generate consistent offense is a huge concern against a pitcher like Crochet.
New York’s bullpen, while solid overall, doesn’t match up to the Red Sox’s group. The Mets’ relievers rank 27th in ERA, and their high WHIP (1.38) leaves them vulnerable late in games. With Crochet likely to dominate for at least six innings, the Mets’ bullpen will have to hold down a Boston offense that is capable of piling on runs. This is a tall order, considering their recent form and the Red Sox’s recent success at Fenway.
Mets vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Looking at the trends, the Mets are 1-6 straight up in their last seven games at Fenway, and they’ve failed to cover the run line in their last seven visits to Boston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have covered the run line in six of their last seven at home. With Crochet on the mound and the Mets struggling offensively, it’s clear which side has the advantage.
Sox win at home.
Best bet: Red Sox (-150) vs. Mets
Sox suffocate the Mets—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
