If you’re watching a National League West game, you’re in for a good matchup. Last night’s Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks contest was no different.
The Dodgers led 1-0 for the majority of the contest before Arizona tied it in the top of the ninth. The road D-Backs added two in the top of the 10th, but LA stormed back with three runs to walk it off. Now Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the Diamondbacks to get some revenge.
The D-Backs are no stranger to big-money pitcher signings, but they haven’t panned out in recent memory. Throwing a ton of money at Zack Greinke in 2016 didn’t work. Madison Bumgarner in 2019 was the same. They’ve spent big cash on another front-line starter, and it’s working. He’s pitched to a 2.56 ERA so far.
Will he keep the good times rolling tonight? Or will this star-studded Dodgers lineup send Burnes to the showers early?
The Diamondbacks enter as +120 road underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 9.5. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Corbin Burnes tonight.
Best Corbin Burnes Prop Bets
Corbin Burnes Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
Here’s the issue with Burnes: his underlying stats scream regression. His xERA is at 4.27, 35th percentile amongst all starting pitchers. He’s giving up a lot of walks and getting hit hard often. Even if you want to ignore advanced stats, a 2.56 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP is not sustainable. Eventually, the runners on base get strung together, and you get punished.
This Dodgers lineup also knows how to string ’em together. It isn’t easy to pitch out of an Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith top four. On top of that, Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez returned to the game last night as pinch hitters and could be in the lineup as soon as tonight. All it takes is one bad inning against this loaded lineup, and you’re toast.
Corbin Burnes Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
Let’s double down on Dodger excellence in this one. Burnes has gotten 17 or more outs in five of eight games this year, including seven shutout innings against these Dodgers.
So why am I fading that? Call it gut instinct. Maybe he keeps skating on an ERA two runs lower than his xERA. But things might get ugly when you’re due for regression and the Dodgers are on the calendar.
