When the Indiana Pacers ousted the New York Knicks to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, it seemed like somewhat of a fluke. Not only were the Knicks missing forward Julius Randle, point guard Jalen Brunson broke his hand late in Game 7, effectively ending New York’s chances. The air of flukiness only increased when the Pacers got swept by the eventual champion Boston Celtics, although three of the games were decided by five points or less.
This Indiana run has been more convincing. The Pacers have made several impressive comebacks, including two games in which they trailed by seven or more points with less than a minute to play. The emergence and hot shooting of third-year guard Andrew Nembhard has been a major reason why Indiana is in the position it is.
Game 1 of this season’s conference finals against the Knicks will tip off tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden.
The Pacers are 4.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 222.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Nembhard.
Best Andrew Nembhard Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Andrew Nembhard 15+ Points (+180)
Nembhard wasn’t much of a scorer during the regular season, scoring single-digit points more than twice as many times (33) as he scored 15 or more (14) and shooting just 29.1% from beyond the arc. But both this season and last, he has proven to be a playoff riser, as he’s averaging 14.8 points per game in his postseason career on 49.0% accuracy from three-point range. The sample size of 27 games is too large for it to be simply considered a fluke; he scored 15 or more points in nine of his 17 playoff games last season and in six of his 10 games this season so far.
Plus, it just so happens that the player likely to guard him is also New York’s most important player. Nembhard’s role tonight will be simple: hound Brunson on offense and hope to tire him out by making him play defense. With the Knicks’ chances of winning the game — and the series — sitting squarely on the shoulders of their captain, Indiana should force Brunson to work, especially since his on-ball defense is arguably the weakest part of his game. Nembhard is capable in isolation; of the 60 players who played at least 65 regular-season games and isolated on more than five percent of their plays, Nembard had the 21st-best efficiency. He also posted the 15th-best efficiency off of screens of any player who played at least 65 games, albeit in a small sample size.
Andrew Nembhard First Field Goal Made Type – 3 Points (+240)
Of all 204 qualified players this season, Nembhard’s 54.5% true shooting percentage in the regular season was the 48th-lowest. During the regular season, he only attempted threes on 32.5% of his shots and shot it at basically half the efficiency that he posted within the arc. If his postseason play so far had mirrored his regular-season play, this would be a bad value bet. But his three-point attempt rate has skyrocketed to 40.4% so far these playoffs and he’s been nearly as efficient from beyond the arc as within it. 30.0% of his field goal attempts in the conference semifinals were wide-open threes, and he hit them at a 53.3% clip.
He wasn’t very efficient on wide-open threes during the regular season, making just 30.6% of his tries, the second-worst mark among the team’s rotation players. Still, he should keep getting opportunities; wide-open triples accounted for 23.7% of the Celtics’ field goal attempts in their second-round series against New York, the second-highest mark of any team. All four of Nembhard’s three-point attempts against the Knicks during his two regular-season matchups against them came with the nearest defender more than four feet away, although he missed all four, and individually, Brunson shouldn’t provide too much resistance. A three was Nembhard’s first made field goal in two of his past three games.
