The Timberwolves and Thunder tip off Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. OKC is a heavy -330 favorite in the series, coming of a dominant Game 7 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have been off for nearly a week, closing out a 4-1 series victory over the Stephen Curry-less Warriors.
Let’s breakdown some plays on the Western Conference Finals.
Game 1 Player Prop: Naz Reid OVER 10.5 Points (-120) – 1-unit
Reid dominated the Thunder in four outings this season, averaging 22.5 points, 11 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 blocks. Those numbers are misleading, as Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert were both out for three of those games, and Reid played at least 38 minutes and scored at least 22 points in each of those outings. However, Chris Finch has to have taken notice of how well Reid matches up with OKC, and I’d still expect the former Sixth Man of the Year to have a prominent role in the WCF.
Reid did also share the floor with both Randle and Gobert against OKC once this season, still getting up 14 shots in 33 minutes. Reid finished with 19 points and eight boards as the third big in the rotation. Through 10 postseason outings, Reid is averaging over 25 minutes per game, playing against well undersized opponents in the Warriors and Lakers. Reid’s services should be even more valuable against a team with size like the Thunder, and given his success this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an expanded role. I’ll play on Reid to top his modest point prop in Game 1.
Game 1 ATS: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) – 1.5-units
Minnesota has cruised past the Lakers and Warriors to reach the WCF, and while OKC should be its toughest test yet, I feel the Wolves are pretty underpriced in this series. Sunday’s Game 7 was a convincing outcome, but the reality is that the Thunder did struggle through their series against a dinged up Nuggets team that lacks depth. Minnesota is a better, deeper team than Denver, and is also at full health at the most important time of the season.
The Wolves have the defenders to key in on OKC’s most important players, including plenty of size and athleticism to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. While stopping SGA is likely too tall a task, Minnesota can at least limit the likely MVP. Anthony Edwards is up to the challenge of competing to be the best player on the floor throughout the series, and if he finds success on a couple of nights, that would be massive for Minnesota’s chances.
The Wolves also have the size to contend with OKC, which they didn’t have in the regular season matchups. Randle and Gobert each missed the last three matchups, yet, these teams split the season series 2-2. I like the Wolves to come out well prepared in Game 1 against an OKC squad that just finished up a long, back and forth series. I’ll take the point with Minnesota, which feels undervalued in a lot of markets this series.
Series Spread: Timberwolves +2.5 Games (-160) – 1.5-units
The Wolves are playing far better than the 6-seed in the west, and I laid out a lot of the reasons below. Minnesota has the depth to match the Thunder in a series like this, and has the potential to win the three-point line to the extent that it has the edge in the series. The Wolves have won 30 of the last 36 games that Randle has played in, and I expect him to be a force against the slender Chet Holmgren. Getting the Wolves on the +2.5 series spread (essentially to win two or more games in the series), feels like a very strong play at -160 — which is the best available price in the market.
Series Double: MIN Win Game 1/MIN Win Series (+600) – 0.25-units
I don’t just think the Wolves can hang around in Game 1. I think they are live to win the game and the series. So I’ll take a small piece of that exact outcome at 6-1.
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