The Yankees come into tonight’s clash with the Rangers as one of baseball’s hottest teams. New York is 8-3 in its last 11 games and, thanks to underwhelming campaigns from Toronto, Boston and Baltimore, they now sit 4.5 games in the AL East as the division’s lone club above .500. What a wild time to be alive.
Texas is also trending in a positive direction as of late, winning seven of its past 10 contests, though the team’s lineup does lack depth with both Corey Seager (hamstring) and Evan Carter (quad) on the IL. It’s clear that the Rangers have been carried this season by a rotation that sports an MLB-best 2.83 ERA. However, it’s easy to question if whether Tuesday’s probable, Patrick Corbin, can continue to have the success he’s enjoyed so far in 2025.
Let’s preview this tilt in the Bronx with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Yankees prediction, preview
We have to start with the aforementioned Corbin. While we all sit around and wait for the wheels to fall off for the 35-year-old, we should at least give the veteran LHP his flowers while there’s still the chance. Through seven starts and 37.2 innings, Corbin has maintained a 3.35 ERA. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in any single outing, while a 90th percentile opponent hard hit rate (31.6%) and 62nd percentile opponent barrel rate (7.0) illustrate how Corbin’s been able to suppress premium opponent contact.
Still, regression is coming. There is no doubt in my mind. This isn’t just because of Corbin’s atrocious track record, either. Corbin enters Tuesday’s action with a 4.74 FIP and a 4.51 SIERA, which is the direct result of a career-high 86.5% strand rate and a career-low .278 BABIP. These simply aren’t sustainable things, especially with Corbin sitting in just the 27th percentile in strikeout rate (18.5). I expect the Yankees are licking their chops at the prospect of this matchup, particularly as the team currently owns league-best marks in wOBA (.372) and wRC+ (147) against lefties.
Taking the mound for New York will be rookie Will Warren, who should be looking to build on his two best starts of the season. Warren was phenomenal on the west coast, tossing 12.1 combined innings against the Mariners and the Athletics. All told, Warren surrendered only three earned runs in these games, while striking out a notable 16 opponents. It was also the first time in 2025 that Warren was able to work at least five innings in back-to-back outings. Stuff has never been a question with the RHP and Warren seems to be harnessing it at the moment.
Rangers vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Like I said above, Texas’ pitching has been the main reason the team is above .500. Even with some wins in the past few weeks, the Rangers have only managed a .228 average with a 99 wRC+ across the past 14 days. If Corbin comes crashing back down to Earth on Tuesday night — which isn’t the most unlikely scenario in the world — I have a hard time envisioning Texas’ bats keeping pace with the Bronx Bombers.
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-105)
New York has been the best team in baseball at hitting LHPs this season.
Strong Lean: Patrick Corbin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
Yankees are hitting .270 off lefties and Corbin is due for some BABIP regression.
