It’s tough times right now for Mets fans. Well, as tough as times can get for a franchise that’s 29-19 and owns the league’s highest payroll. Coming into Tuesday’s action, New York has lost four of its last five contests and it’s slipped out of first place in the NL East.
Can the Mets get back on track at Fenway Park? Can the Red Sox finally get back to .500 after an underwhelming start to the month of May?
Let’s preview this big market clash with the help of some lines and odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
After nearly a month on the shelf, Walker Buehler will be activated off the 15-day IL and will start tonight’s game versus the Mets. While Buehler’s first two outings in a Red Sox uniform were quite bad, the veteran had seemed to be finding his stride prior to his injury, with the RHP posting a 2.59 ERA and holding opponents to a modest .266 wOBA in his four most recent trips to the mound. Though, it should be noted that those starts were made against the Blue Jays, the Rays, the White Sox and the Guardians — not exactly the cream of the crop when it comes to high-powered lineups.
New York should present a mush stiffer challenge for Buehler. Across the past 30 days, the Mets possess baseball’s third-highest wOBA at .343, trailing only the likes of the Dodgers and the Yankees. In that same span, New York also sports MLB’s second-best OBP (.349) and its fourth-best wRC+ (121). Just imagine the heights the team could reach when Juan Soto begins producing like his 98th percentile expected wOBA suggests he will.
Opposing Buehler on the bump will be Clay Holmes, who has settled in nicely to his new role as a starter. In nine outings and 48.2 innings of work in 2025, Holmes has registered a 3.14 ERA and a 3.10 FIP. The lone red flag is Holmes’ recent inability to generate swings and misses. In the right-hander’s first five games of the season, a 30.1% strikeout rate translated easily into a 2.20 FIP. However, Holmes’ strikeout rate has almost halved in his last four starts, sitting at just 15.6% — a figure that is sadly far more in line with a 25th percentile whiff rate (21.6%). Holmes’ hasn’t had poor overall results as of late, yet it’s certainly a trend to monitor as the season progresses.
Mets vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
It was a noisy weekend for Soto, both in the media and literally in right field where he was being booed mercilessly by scorned Yankees fans. An underwhelming showing in a high profile series is weighing heavy on people’s minds at the moment, but I won’t allow public perception to blind my eyes to raw data. Soto’s been fine in 2025. If anything, he’s just been a little unlucky, as evidenced by 96th percentile marks in average exit velocity (94.2), expected slugging percentage (.601) and expected batting average (.310).
Tonight’s the night that luck begins to change.
Best Bet: Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+130)
Buehler’s allowed opposing LHBs to bat .300 this season with a .347 wOBA.
Strong Lean: Clay Holmes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Holmes has failed to hit this over in his last four outings and his below-average whiff rate backs up the trend.
