They were here last year after a furious comeback over the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. Now, the Minnesota Timberwolves are back to do one better.
Instead of Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks on the other side of the court, they will face an even more dangerous opponent in the 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder, who blew the Nuggets in Sunday night’s Game 7 and whose presence in this series was expected. This highly-anticipated Western Conference Finals will tip off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET in Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are seven-point favorites to win tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-298 Moneyline) and -330 favorites to win the series overall. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are +240 to win tonight’s game and +265 to win the series.
Below, I’ve outlined my favorite same game parlay for tonight’s all-important contest.
Best Same Game Parlay for Timberwolves at Thunder
Minnesota Timberwolves +7
Minnesota probably won’t win this series, but the odds underrate it. The Timberwolves started to peak towards the end of the season, winning 17 of its last 21 regular season before producing dominant performances over the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors over the first two rounds. They have had the fifth-best offense and second-best defense so far these playoffs, and unlocking Julius Randle as a jumbo-sized playmaker — he ranked second among all second round participants in assist points created — should present the Thunder with a challenge. Minnesota has several avenues to success: it can go big behind its elite rim protector in Rudy Gobert or it can go small with sharpshooter Naz Reid at the five, and Anthony Edwards is capable of scoring at all three levels.
These two teams split the regular season series, with neither of Oklahoma City’s victories being decided by more than seven points, and Randle, Gobert, and Donte DiVincenzo didn’t even play in three of them. Minnesota matches up fairly well with the Thunder overall; although Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso were pretty effective in slowing down Edwards in the regular season, Edwards clamped up Dort and forced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into a few uncharacteristic turnovers. Plus, the Timberwolves have a huge rest advantage entering the series, as they haven’t played since May 14, while Oklahoma City played Sunday night. A 2007 study by Wharton researchers Oliver Entine and Dylan S. Small concluded that teams with three or more days of rest saw a 1.77-point improvement in their score margin.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U31.5 Points
To be fair, Gilgeous-Alexander did score more than 32 points in three of the teams’ four matchups this season, and in the one game he didn’t, he shot an uncharacteristically poor six-for-21 from the field. Still, the playoffs are a different beast; Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 31 or fewer points in six of his 11 playoff games so far, and Minnesota will be by far the best defense that he has faced so far these playoffs. In the second round, Gilgeous-Alexander was guarded mostly by Christian Braun — a decent, but not great defender — and drove into a lane patrolled by the lumbering Nikola Jokić. That’s a far cry from Edwards and Gobert, who held Dončić to the fourth-worst playoff series of his career by average game score in the first round and did an excellent job against Brandin Podziemski and Jimmy Butler in the second round.
During the regular season, Edwards mostly guarded Dort, but he somewhat held his own against Gilgeous-Alexander, too, as 18 points, five assists, and four turnovers in 50.6 partial possessions is fairly modest production for the likely MVP. 51.1% of Gilgeous-Alexander’s shots against the Timberwolves during the regular season came with a defender within four feet, compared to just 44.5% of his shots overall. Plus, Gobert and Randle change the calculus; of the 29 players who have guarded at least five shots per game at the rim so far these playoffs, Gobert has allowed the eighth-lowest field goal percentage, and Randle held Butler to just one-for-13 shooting last series. Minnesota has also given up the fewest free throw attempts per game of the four remaining teams, neutralizing Gilgeous-Alexander’s friendly whistle.
Donte DiVincenzo U1.5 Three-Pointers Made
DiVincenzo has had a nightmarish postseason, shooting just six-for-31 (19.4%) from beyond the arc in the first round and then committing three turnovers and four fouls in just 16 minutes of play in Game 3 of the second round. His efficiency was better in the second round — 37.8% from the field and 32.0% from beyond the arc — and he did make two or more triples in three of the last four games against the Warriors, but averaging nearly as many combined turnovers and fouls as points isn’t ideal and playing fewer minutes in each of the last three games than Mike Conley isn’t either. In the highest-stake situations, it’s clear that he’s lost some of Chris Finch’s trust.
Going two-for-four from deep in both Games 4 and 5 against Golden State could be a sign that his shot is starting to turn around, but Oklahoma City is a much tougher opponent. So far these playoffs, the Thunder have held their opponents to 31.2% shooting from beyond the arc, the best mark in the league and three points stingier than they were in the regular season. Oklahoma City did benefit from plenty of shooting luck against the Nuggets, who went zero-for-19 on open or wide-open threes in the fourth quarters of Games 4 and 5 in an ultimately series-defining cold streak, but it’s not all fortune: the Thunder rank fourth in contested threes and third in contested shots overall these playoffs, and DiVincenzo shot just two-for-seven from deep during his one regular-season clash against them. Combine that inefficiency with lower playoff usage, and it’s totally reasonable to expect a quiet night from DiVo.
