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How the public is betting Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1

How the public is betting Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 1

Sports Betting Picks Basketball NBA

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

The Thunder are hosting the Timberwolves for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday.

Let’s explore how the public is betting Game 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Splits

For moneyline bets, it is a near split for this Game 1 between the Thunder and Timberwolves, with 45% of the handle and 51% of the bets on the Thunder at -305, and 55% of the handle and 49% of the bets on the Timberwolves at +245. These two teams split their regular-season series at two wins apiece and while Minnesota’s +245 moneyline odds are obviously much more appealing than backing Oklahoma City at -305, 55% of the handle being on the road underdog in the Timberwolves is somewhat surprising. The Thunder are a league-best 40-7 at home this season and they are 5-1 at home during the playoffs, with their margin of victory in those five wins being a ridiculous 31.4 PPG.

With 55% of the handle backing the Timberwolves on the moneyline, Minnesota unsurprisingly is seeing more action when it comes to spread bets as well, with 57% of the handle and 65% of the bets on the Timberwolves at +7.5. Conversely, only 43% of the handle and 35% of the bets are on the Thunder at -7.5. Again, this is surprising considering how elite the Thunder have been this season. Oklahoma City is 57-33-4 ATS and 31-14-2 ATS at home, both of which are league-best records. The Timberwolves are 11-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, but the bottom line is this spread should have been closer to double-digits in favor of the Thunder and backing Oklahoma City at -7.5 is the smarter wager.

Per usual during these NBA playoffs, most bettors are on the over for Game 1, with 89% of the handle and 84% of the bets backing over 216 points. All four of the matchups between the Thunder and Timberwolves in the regular season went over 216 points and those four contests produced an average of 236.8 PPG. While both these clubs rank inside the top-six in defensive rating, they also both rank inside the top-10 in offensive rating, and this 216-point total is simply too low for this matchup. 60.9% of the Thunder’s home games have gone over their total this season and tailing the public with the over here is the right call.

Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:

  1. Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+110)
  2. Anthony Edwards Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115)
  3. Naz Reid 25+ Points (+1800)
  4. Julius Randle to be 1st Point Scorer (+650)
  5. Jalen Williams Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-145)

Caruso for over 1.5 made three-pointers is the most-bet player prop for Game 1 and this makes a ton of sense at this appealing +110 price. The veteran is averaging 1.8 made three-pointers per game while shooting 41.7% from beyond the arc this postseason. Caruso has gone over 1.5 made three-pointers in six of these 11 games and attacking this over quickly is wise, as this over is likely to become favored before game time due to its popularity.

Up next is Edwards for over 11.5 RA at -115, which is another strong wager. The star just posted 19 RA in his last start and he is averaging 8.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game this postseason. Edwards has exceeded 11.5 RA in seven of these 10 games and he has surpassed 11.5 RA in three of his four matchups with the Thunder this season.

The third-most-bet player prop for Game 1 is a much more unlikely wager, with Reid for 25+ points at +1800. The sixth man for the Timberwolves only scored 25+ points in one of his four matchups vs. Oklahoma City in the regular season and Julius Randle was inactive for that contest, which resulted in a starting role for Reid. With Randle healthy right now and playing some of the best basketball of his career, Reid is coming off the bench for Minnesota and his role has decreased during these playoffs, with Reid seeing less than 25 minutes in three straight games. The big man is only averaging 12.9 PPG with Randle active this season and Reid having a 25+ point performance off the bench tonight against the Thunder’s league-best defense is a total pipe dream. Plain and simple, this bet is not worth considering tonight.

Speaking of Randle, the forward to be the first point scorer at +650 is the fourth-most-bet player prop for Game 1 and is a great option if interested in this type of bet. Randle has been the first point scorer 12 times this season, meaning he has achieved this in 15.6% of his starts. Randle is leading the Timberwolves with a 27.4% usage rate in the first minute of games this season and his odds for the first basket tonight should have been shorter than +650.

Lastly, Williams for over 9.5 RA at a favored -145 price is the fifth-most-bet player prop for Game 1. The wing has exceeded 9.5 RA in eight of his 11 starts this postseason for an average of 5.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game. Williams surpassed 9.5 RA in all but one of his four matchups with the Timberwolves in the regular season and he is an excellent bet for over this combo line that is simply too low.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.