With the NBA Playoffs field narrowed down to four teams, the conference finals matchup are finally set. Out in the Western Conference, the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder face off with a Timberwolves squad out for revenge after falling in this round last postseason.
With a couple of superstar scoring guards set to duel, there’s star power aplenty in this series with the makings of an instant classic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks deserving of the MVP and led Oklahoma City to a dominant 67-win campaign alongside Jalen Williams, but on the other side, Anthony Edwards and an underrated Julius Randle showed they have what it takes to succeed come playoff time and contend for a title.
Here’s a Knicks vs. Pacers prediction and pick for their Eastern Conference Finals series, which tips off for Game 1
Thunder vs. Timberwolves preview, prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder
These Thunder still look nearly every bit of the championship contender they were during the regular season, but after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in round one, the Denver Nuggets pushed them to the brink of elimination with a seven-game conference semifinal series. While MVP candidate Nikola Jokic certainly showed up to play last round, the Thunder shut down the rest of the Nuggets’ lineup and blew them out in Game 7, 125-93.
The Thunder average the third-most points per game of any playoff team with 117.1 per contest and an offensive rating of 115.1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead the way as the team’s leading scorer and playmaker with 29.0 points and 6.4 assists per outing, only solidifying what the league already knew — the superstar remains one of the best offensive engines in the Association, bar none. Behind SGA comes Jalen Williams, who’s struggled to shoot consistently this postseason but looks to prove himself with across-the-board production.
Oklahoma City can outscore most teams on any given night, but they truly hang their hat on defense. They grade out with a defensive rating of 101.6 during this playoff run, the best mark of any team by a greater than five-point margin. Chet Holmgren leads the roster with 2.2 blocks per game along with 9.7 rebounds, so his defensive impact both in the paint and along the perimeter with his switching ability can’t be ignored. Lu Dort still looks like a lockdown defender, too. With an astounding 13.5 net rating, the Thunder blow opponents out of the water with two-way prowess.
Minnesota Timberwolves
On the other end are the Timberwolves, and man, are they out to avenge last year’s Western Conference Finals loss. The Wolves blew through LeBron James and Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers in just five games during the first round. While they caught a lucky break with Stephen Curry missing almost the entire second round, Minnesota still handled business to dispatch the Golden State Warriors in five games, too. These Wolves are rested, and their hunger has only grown while waiting for their next opponent.
The Timberwolves come in just behind the Thunder’s offensive rating at 114.6, and while they score just 108.2 points per game, their slower pace explains Minnesota’s lower scoring totals. Anthony Edwards’ 26.5 points per contest are a team-high (and his 8.0 rebounds show how locked in the star guard is), but Julius Randle has played sneaky-great basketball with 23.9 points, plus 5.9 dimes and boards apiece. Randle has found his stride when it matters most and finally fits in as this team’s second option.
Minnesota’s defense also performs admirably with a 106.8 defensive rating, the second-best mark among playoff teams. The Rudy Gobert truthers were simply a year too early as he anchors the paint with 9.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per contest — a mark which sounds low for the multi-time DPOY, but it’s because teams don’t attack the rim as often when he’s beneath it. Jaden McDaniels also plays a huge role on this defense, taking the toughest matchup when he’s on the floor. Their net rating sits at 7.9, not quite the level of their opponent but still a very positive margin.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves series pick, best bet
Which team has the upper hand in this series? At first glance, the Thunder still possess the traits of an NBA Finals-worthy roster. They deploy the best player remaining in the postseason field, a stellar defense, and their brand of team basketball truly stands out with the playoffs’ lowest turnover percentage and an assist percentage coming in at nearly 60%. After all, these guys earned the top seed for a reason.
Something doesn’t feel quite right about these Thunder, though. Yes, they swept the Grizzlies and then downed Jokic and the Nuggets last round, but they didn’t quite look invincible during that conference semifinal series. Oklahoma City has the talent to go all the way, but their options outside of Gilgeous-Alexander don’t perform up to par on a nightly basis, and even SGA’s playoff production sits a tick lower than his regular-season sample.
Rebounding remains a concern for the Thunder as well. The numbers may look a tad skewed since they did just face Jokic, who gobbles up boards at a rate unlike almost any other player in the world, but Oklahoma City only pulls in 47.8% of rebounding chances through 11 playoff games so far. At 45.4% from the field but just 31.9% from three-point range, they also aren’t shooting particularly well as a unit. Those missed chances add up, and with Gobert and a couple of other great rebounders in the lineup, the Wolves should take advantage and add some extra possessions on the glass. Look at their rebounding percentage of 51.9% for proof.
With that in mind, as well as Randle’s reliable play as a second option and their fresh legs from handling previous series in five games, the Timberwolves are a real threat to pull off the upset and make their first-ever NBA Finals appearance.
TOP PICK: MIN Timberwolves Series Winner (+265)
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