The Thunder and Timberwolves will be going head-to-head in the Western Conference Finals and Game 1 of this best-of-seven will be in Oklahoma City on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Thunder are a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 and this contest carries a total of 215.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 1 between the Thunder and Timberwolves and give a pick for the game via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves preview, prediction
We should be in store for a very exciting Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Timberwolves. Oklahoma City’s series against the Nuggets in the second round went to seven games, but the Thunder eliminated Denver in dominating fashion in Game 7 this past Sunday by 32 points. Meanwhile, Minnesota finds itself in the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row after it eliminated the Warriors in five games in the second round. Both the Thunder and Timberwolves are at full strength and have no notable injuries to report ahead of Tuesday’s Game 1 in Oklahoma City. Minnesota does have an advantage in rest, as it hasn’t played since last Wednesday, while Oklahoma City just closed out the Nuggets this past Sunday.
The Thunder and Timberwolves faced each other four times in the regular season and this season series was split with both clubs winning two games. Minnesota beat Oklahoma City by 15 points in the second of these four matchups, but outside of that tilt, the other three games between these teams were all decided by eight points or less, including an overtime thriller in late February in which the Timberwolves won by three points.
The Thunder and Timberwolves are very similar teams. Both clubs are elite defensive groups that have strong defenders on the perimeter and in the paint. Furthermore, Oklahoma City and Minnesota are similar on the offensive end as they both have a true superstar leading the way and a strong secondary scorer to complement that superstar, with the Thunder having Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams at the helm while Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are running the show for the Timberwolves.
Gilgeous-Alexander was dominant against the Timberwolves in the regular season, averaging 35 PPG in the four matchups between these two clubs, but this number is slightly misleading, as Chet Holmgren missed two of these games, which resulted in extra usage for Gilgeous-Alexander. Edwards on the other hand had trouble with the Thunder’s league-best defense, averaging only 22.3 PPG in those four matchups. This average is underwhelming when you consider Randle was only available for one of those four games.
Randle being healthy and thriving right now is huge news for the Timberwolves heading into this series, especially if the Thunder continue to bother Edwards. Randle used to be a very lackluster playoff performer, but the ex-Knick has completely silenced his critics this postseason, averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game while shooting 50% from the field. That being said, Randle did all this damage against an unorganized Lakers team in the first round and a Warriors team in the second round that was also lost, as Stephen Curry (hamstring) went down for the series only 12 minutes into Game 1. Facing a fully healthy Thunder team that won an eye-popping 68 games in the regular season is a totally different test and Randle should come back down to earth to some degree against the Thunder.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
As we just saw in Game 7 against the Nuggets, when the Thunder embarrassed Nikola Jokic and company by 32 points, Oklahoma City is extremely tough to beat on its home floor and while the Timberwolves have more rest in their favor, the Thunder should be oozing with confidence heading into this Game 1 and should win this series-opening tilt. This season, Oklahoma City is a league-best 40-7 at home and it is 59-16 when coming off a win.
Additionally, the Thunder are 57-33-4 ATS and 31-14-2 ATS at home, both of which are also league-best records. Oklahoma City’s five home wins this postseason have been by a whopping average of 31.4 PPG and backing the Thunder at -7.5 is the right move for Game 1.
