The Houston Astros (24-22) march into Steinbrenner Field to face the struggling Tampa Bay Rays (21-25), setting the stage for a tight matchup of ~.500 AL squads. Both teams come in with their fair share of flaws, but the one glaring difference tonight lies in the pitching matchup. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday baseball game between the Rays and the Astros.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rays vs. Astros prediction, preview
Colton Gordon (0-0, 6.23 ERA) is a rookie making just his second start of the season, having allowed seven hits and three runs in his lone outing. With limited experience and a shaky WHIP of 2.077, Gordon could be in for a tough test against Tampa Bay’s hitters, despite the Rays’ offensive power outages this season.
Ryan Pepiot (2-5, 3.93 ERA), on the other hand, has been more consistent. He’s got a steady 45 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. Despite the Rays’ offensive woes, Pepiot has managed to limit runs effectively and is coming off a quality start against the Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay’s offense is rough. They rank 23rd in runs (3.9 per game), and their power has been minimal with just 39 home runs, placing them 25th in the league. Despite having speed on the basepaths (57 stolen bases, third in MLB), they struggle to string together hits and have only hit .242 as a team. Jonathan Aranda (.312 BA) and Junior Caminero (eight HRs) are about the only bright spots. Yandy Díaz, though hitting just .243, is a steady producer with 24 RBIs. Brandon Lowe, coming off a two-game hitting streak after a lengthy IL stint, is heating up, which adds some pop to the lineup.
On the other hand, the Astros have been decent-and-improving at the plate, ranking 20th in runs (4.0 per game) but still producing solid contact. Jeremy Peña (.299 BA) and Isaac Paredes (seven HRs) have been reliable, but they’re also limited in terms of power—Houston ranks 25th in home runs (39). However, with a pitching staff boasting a 3.39 ERA (sixth), they can keep things close, especially with the bullpen’s 1.12 WHIP and a league-leading 28% miss rate against batters. You just need Gordon to get through about four innings.
Astros vs. Rays pick, best bet
The Astros have excelled in low-scoring affairs, hitting the under in sive of their last six games and 19 of their 46 games this season. Tampa Bay, despite playing at home, has also been underwhelming in hitting totals, falling under in six of their last nine matchups. Pepiot’s pitching, combined with a lack of sustained offense from the Rays, points to another tightly contested battle that likely won’t see much scoring.
Given the quality of both pitching staffs—especially Pepiot’s control and the Astros’ top-tier bullpen—the over/under of 9.0 runs feels a tad too high for a matchup with so much offensive inconsistency. Expect a game that falls short of double-digit runs, with each side’s limitations showing through.
Best bet: Rays vs. Astros under 9.0 total runs (-115)
Pitching duel at Steinbrenner tonight—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
