With the Oklahoma City Thunder beating the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 on Sunday, the final four of the NBA Playoffs have come into focus. OKC will face the Minnesota Timberwolves to represent the West, while the New York Knicks will take on the Indiana Pacers in the East. Let’s take a look at who holds the best odds to win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP:
The Favorite
Unsurprisingly, the Thunder are title favorites. This 68-win Oklahoma City squad feels difficult to stop after passing a difficult test against Denver. The other two 60-win teams, Cleveland and Boston, met with unceremonious ends in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. That leaves only teams that OKC was indisputably better than in the picture. It’s earned their -145 line on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
If Oklahoma City were to win, it would be a shock if anyone other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took home the hardware. It’s rare for anyone other than the best player on the team to win it. If that player doesn’t perform to their standard, it usually means their team isn’t winning it all. I do think Jalen Williams is a worthy hedge if you’re convinced OKC is unstoppable. Whoever comes out of the East will have to sell out to stop Gilgeous-Alexander, and Williams could have some huge nights as a result.
Best Of The Rest
The rest of the field is interesting. As the home team in the Eastern Conference Finals, New York gets a slight series price edge over the Pacers. That projects to be a dogfight of a series, and for my money, I’d expect Indiana to pull through. If you think these East teams can beat Oklahoma City, then Indiana players have value. Tyrese Haliburton, as the best player on the Pacers, makes the most sense. But he’s not perceived as a true No. 1 alpha-type. Some huge games from Pascal Siakam could swing the award in his favor.
Anthony Edwards’ line intrigues me as well. I’d consider Minnesota the second-best team in the field; they suffer the misfortune of playing the best. But if it can survive the Thunder without any significant injuries, I’d expect ir to be Finals favorites. That would make Edwards the overwhelming favorite to win the award.
The Thunder are rightfully the overwhelming favorites to win this championship over the field. But if you have doubts about them after a seven-game series against the Nuggets, there is value to be had on the board with the top guys on other teams.
