It’s Matchup 10 in season-long fantasy baseball if you’re in weekly leagues. That’s already two-and-a-half months of baseball in the books. Hard to believe, a little, seeing as the Tokyo Series felt like just yesterday. What’s even more wild? The playoff picture is taking shape, but it’s nowhere near solidified in the most superficial sense, yet. All games matter. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cubs -1.5 (-105) at Marlins
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the most exciting player in baseball the public has yet to catch onto. What he’s done so far in 2025 makes what Elly De La Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Gunnar Henderson look paltry. Those guys couldn’t dream of Pete’s wRC+ (169) over the past two weeks.
The Cubs are 67% winners as favorites this season, and they’ve been strong on the road. They’ve won six of their last seven as road favorites following a home win. The Cubs are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games following a win. The Marlins have dropped seven of their last eight home games against the Cubs following a win. With Cabrera’s issues on the mound and Chicago’s offensive firepower, the Cubs are poised cover the spread.
Mets (-130) at Red Sox
Against Senga’s elite splitter, the Red Sox’s offense—ranked 13th in OPS against right-handed pitchers—will need to outlast a pitcher who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season.
In terms of betting trends, the Mets have been dominant as favorites, winning 67.6% of their games as favorites this season, including 70% of games where they are favored at -130 or shorter. They’ve covered the run line in eight of their last nine after a loss and have been excellent against AL East opponents with a 15-4 record. The Red Sox, conversely, have struggled against National League teams, going 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games against teams with a winning record in the National League.
Astros (+110) at Rays
Houston is primed to take this one, even on the road. While Tampa Bay struggles to maintain consistency, the Astros boast a solid pitching staff led by Colton Gordon—despite limited experience, he’s shown promise. His fastball, paired with an elite bullpen, will neutralize a Tampa offense that’s been inconsistent at best, ranking 23rd in runs. Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez (when healthy) form a resilient core, capable of making the most of any mistakes Pepiot might offer.
With the Rays having a tough time against left-handed pitchers this season—batting just .203 against them—Houston’s pitching staff is in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, the Astros’ ability to keep games tight, as seen in their recent road performances, allows them to capitalize on Tampa’s mounting pressure and pitching inconsistencies. At +117, Houston’s moneyline offers great value, and their ability to execute in these gritty, low-scoring games gives them the edge.
