Major League Baseball is ready to roll this Monday, taking advantage of a break in the NBA Playoffs schedule to take center stage with a dozen juicy matchups. There are always plenty of fun ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, and one of the most fun ways to flex is by hitting on some Home run props. Looking at the options and matchups on the board this Monday, let’s take a look at my top three home run props for Monday night. Today, I’m feeling good about .
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Saturday, May 17.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Schwarber to record 1+ home runs (+240)
Schwarber is one off the MLB lead in home runs with 15 dingers on the season. He has eight homers in his last 18 games with a 63.0% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over that span.
He is in an awesome home run envirnoment at Coors Field on Monday night, but he is still up over +200 since he’s facing a lefty-lefty matchup to start the game against Kyle Freeland. Schwarber actually has seven of his 15 homers this season against southpaws, though, so even though his average is lower, his power is still strong enough to target.
In his 17 career games at Coors Field, he has six home runs. With how well he’s seeing the ball right now and the quality of contact in every split, he is a strong play at this value number on Monday night in Denver.
Lars Nootbaar to record 1+ home runs (+400)
For the second two home run props, I’m targeting a pair of leadoff hitters who bring good power potential to favorable matchups and have been showing plenty of pop at the top of the order. Batting near the top of the order can also help with home run props since it leads to more at-bats.
Nootbaar has seven home runs on the season while hitting .253 with a .346 wOBA. He has a 51.0% hard-hit rate on the year and a healthy 10.1% barrel rate. He has a pair of homers in his last seven games and a 64.1% hard-hit rate over his last 11. Noot is hitting .346 at home compared to just .183 on the road, so coming back to Busch Stadium should help him on Monday.
He’ll face Keider Montero of the Tigers, who has the highest HR/9 of any pitcher on the slate this Monday with at least 20 innings pitched. Montero has allowed five home runs in 25 innings this year, and left-handed hitters have hit three of those home runs in just 49 plate apperances with a .425 wOBA.
Nootbaar has made great contact and is on the strong side of the splits against Montero, making him one of my top home run props on the board at a juicy +400.
Zach Neto to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Neto is another option in a great spot since he’s making excellent contact out of the leadoff spot. He has seven homers in just 27 games after returning from offseason shoulder surgery, and he has three home runs in his last six contests.
Neto and the Angels are one of my top MLB stacks for Monday as they take on J. T. Ginn at Sutter Health Park. Ginn has given up four homers in just 13 2/3 innings this season, and all four have come in the nine innings he pitched at home. Last season in 34 innings, he gave up four home runs as well.
Neto has hit six of his seven home runs off of righties like Ginn, and is hitting .301 with a .402 wOBA in the split. He has a 52.1% hard-hit rate this season with a 94.0 mph average exit velocity, which ranks 12th in the majors. His xwOBA is in the top 6% of the majors while his xwOBACON is in the top 1%.
While he’s a long shot at over +400, he’s still one of my top home run props available based on his matchup and the quality of contact he has made this season.
