The Tennessee Titans have their franchise quarterback. After drafting University of Miami QB Cam Ward with the first overall pick in April’s draft, things are looking up in Music City. He’s already slinging missiles during offseason workouts, and the hype train is speeding out of the station.
Now, how high can Ward climb in his rookie season? His season-long props are finally up on the DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s time to check out the over/unders and his Rookie of the Year odds.
First, the passing yards. Here’s the list of his milestones and his accompanying odds:
Since 3,250 is the closest milestone to even, it will likely be the over/under number. But for now, we have our milestones to work with. It’s a very interesting number to work with.
Let’s look at the recent history of top-choice quarterbacks. Three rookie QBs last year (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix) started every game for their respective teams. All three cleared 3,500 yards. Going to the year before, C.J. Stroud cleared 4,000 yards. Bryce Young had one of the most disastrous rookie seasons for a number-one pick in recent memory, and very nearly hit 3,000 while missing one start.
The 3,250 mark feels like a hedge against health and Tennessee’s receiving core. If Ward misses any significant amount of time, the line is kaput. The Titans’ lack of talent outside may also limit his production. Calvin Ridley is excellent but not a top-tier WR1. Tyler Lockett is quality, but was released by the Seahawks for a reason, and may not be a No. 2 anymore. There’s also some excitement down the depth chart, with rookies Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. The chemistry Ward and UDFA WR Xavier Restrepo built at the U could also translate to the league.
There are fair questions about his outlook, but I think a healthy Ward ultimately crushes 3,250. 3,500 is also easily achievable, and you could get spicy by going up to 3,750.
While I’m bullish on his yards, I’m not certain about his touchdowns. Here’s how the odds look:
Let’s go back to last year’s rookie class once again. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix threw 20, 25, and 29 touchdowns, respectively. So you might be thinking 20 scores is the floor, and rightfully so.
The problem is the value. I have no doubt a healthy Ward can throw for 20 scores, but at near even odds, it’s not ideal. 25+ also feels steep as I’m not sold on this Titans offense. They’re going to have to move the ball often and score through the air. Last year’s squad had 22 total touchdowns through the air, and though Ward is considerably better than their options from the past season, the game script cannot possibly be more favorable for throwing than it was last year.
In short, I’m all over the passing numbers, but staying away from the scores through the air. Tennessee has a great run game it can rely on in the short areas, and it still projects to be a rough offensive unit.
