Double high-five to the Minnesota Timberwolves for winning both of their playoff matchups in five games. As a result, they now have….five days….of rest before Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder swept their first round matchup then just concluded a grueling seven-game series with the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. The Thunder will have just one day of rest before Game 1 against Minnesota.
Throughout these playoffs, Minnesota has posted the fifth-best offensive rating and second-best defensive rating. Oklahoma City has the fourth-best offensive rating and best defensive rating by a significant margin.
These teams split four games during the regular season, with both teams winning on the opposing court. Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle only played in the first meeting back in December.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC -7.5 over MIN at home with the total at 215.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $500K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (MIN at OKC)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Captain’s Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($18,000 CP): SGA is the alpha and omega of the Thunder offense. While he doesn’t rain down thunderbolts from the heavens, SGA slices and dices opposing defenses like a sushi chef. The floor is incredibly high due to the usage, role and bucket-getting ability, but that’s not to say a ceiling game can’t be produced. SGA went over 70 FPTS eight times during the regular season with a high of 81.5 FPTS. In the three most recent games facing Minnesota, SGA put up 64.5, 70 and 47.5 FPTS, but Randle and Gobert did not play in any of those contests. Way back in December, with both teams at full strength, SGA finished with 54.75 FPTS on 40 points, three rebounds, two assists and four steals.
UTIL Plays
Cason Wallace ($3,200): Wallace has been a significant part of the rotation off the bench for the Thunder. He is stout on the defensive end, makes the extra pass and knocks down open Js. He finished with over 20 FPTS in three of the last four games in the Denver series and should play at least 20 minutes, with the possibility of more. In the last two games, he received 29 and 27 minutes, albeit one of those games was a blowout.
Mike Conley ($5,400): Conley has been playing possum for much of the season. At 37 years old, both he and the team were likely managing the playing time. It’s go time now, though. In the last three games of the Warriors series, Conley received 28, 29 and 26 minutes. He finished with 19, 23.25 and 38.5 FPTS. Now, the range of outcomes is wide for Conley, so don’t be surprised if he finishes in the teens for FPTS. That said, I think his veteran presence and ability to handle the expected defensive pressure from the Thunder will be huge.
Naz Reid ($6,400): I think there’s a chance Gobert gets played off the floor. If so, Reid would likely be the primary beneficiary. There’s also the scenario in which the Timberwolves find themselves down by a bunch of points, which would require shooters galore. Reid would be out there in that scenario. In the first regular season meeting with the Thunder when Randle and Gobert were playing, Reid played 33 minutes and finished with 37 FPTS. In the other three contests without Randle and Gobert, Reid put up 60, 48.75 and 41.75 FPTS.
Fades
Isaiah Hartenstein ($7,800): Since I think there’s a chance Gobert gets played off the floor, then Hartenstein would likely be adversely affected in that scenario. In the first regular season game with Gobert and Randle playing, Hartenstein played 32 minutes. In the other three games without Randle and Gobert, Hartenstein played 27, 26 and 16 minutes.
THE OUTCOME
The Timberwolves haven’t played a competitive basketball game in a week while the Thunder just came off a rousing Game 7 win. In addition, this game will be at home for the Thunder, where the crowd will likely be extra raucous. I think the Thunder sweep the leg in this one.
Final Score: Thunder 127, Timberwolves 102
