When the confetti settled on the field at Wembley Stadium following Saturday’s FA Cup final, Crystal Palace was elated and Manchester City dejected, which surely isn’t how the four-time defending Premier League champions — or I, for that matter — expected the game to go. Assured of finishing trophy-less besides the Community Shield, City’s attention now turns back to the domestic competition, where, because of its excellent goal difference, it needs just four points from the final two games to assure itself Champions League football for next season.
Tomorrow’s game is a big deal for Bournemouth, too; though the Cherries sit 11th in the league, they trail eighth-placed Brighton by just five points even after the Seagulls’ 3-2 shocker over champions Liverpool earlier today. If Bournemouth beats Man City and Leicester City in its remaining fixtures and Brighton fails to beat Spurs away from home next weekend, the Cherries will finish eighth. That could convey a Europa Conference League spot, if Chelsea wins the Conference League final next Wednesday and finishes sixth or worse in the table, a scenario that is fairly likely if Nottingham Forest beats it on the final day.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Man City is a -200 favorite on the Moneyline, with Bournemouth at +500 and a draw at +360.
AFC Bournemouth at Manchester City prediction, pick
Prior to the FA Cup final, I tried to make the case that City’s draw in its prior match against bottom-of-the-table Southampton had been an aberration and that it had deserved to win, and I predicted that Pep Guardiola’s men would win comfortably in the FA Cup. Obviously, that didn’t happen; City got just six of its 23 shots on target, Omar Marmoush missed a penalty after controversially taking it instead of Erling Haaland, and Eagles goalkeeper Dean Henderson came up with five critical saves. City dominated in many key statistics — 78% possession to Palace’s 22% and seven corners to the Eagles’ one — but yet again, it couldn’t finish amid the traffic, and Guardiola’s decision to start Stefan Ortega over Éderson in goal proved the wrong one.
Now, after the draw against the Saints and the FA Cup final defeat, City’s previous strong form in downing Aston Villa in the league and ousting Nottingham Forest from the cup feels like a distant memory. In its past 270 minutes, City has scored just once despite getting arguably the most lethal striker in Europe back in the squad. Since his return from injury, Haaland has been poor, Marmoush’s penalty was far too close to Henderson, and captain Kevin de Bruyne, playing his final games in blue, had a bad miss. Patience is wearing thin, especially among the veterans.
For his part, Guardiola wasn’t as disappointed with the team’s play as he was after the draw against Southampton, saying after the match, “We played a good defensive game…I would say we were really good in many things.”
Logically, City should take all three points tomorrow. It has lost just four times in all competitions at the Etihad and drawn six others, a dismal mark compared to its 2023-24 form, when it drew seven matches but lost none, but still very good overall. Bournemouth also went through a rough stretch recently, losing four times and getting dumped out of the FA Cup at the hands of City in the span of seven games.
However, the Cherries have since recovered their form, taking nine points from five Premier League matches before a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa last Saturday slowed their momentum. Even in that match, there were plenty of positive signs; they recorded 66% possession, earned 10 corners to Villa’s zero, and uncorked 10 shots to Villa’s six, but Emiliano Martínez did Emiliano Martínez things.
Bournemouth’s roster is very talented, and City shouldn’t underestimate it. 21-year-old wing-back Milos Kerkez is one of the most promising talents in all of Europe and has already been linked with a move to Liverpool after the season ends. Justin Kluivert took over Dominic Solanke’s attacking responsibility after the latter signed with Tottenham and has produced his finest season as a 25-year-old. Between the sticks, former Chelsea castaway Kepa Arrizabalaga ranks eighth in saves and second in save percentage.
With City’s confidence at an all-time low and pressure at an all-time high, I am backing the Cherries to sneak at least a point, meaning City will need to go into the final day needing to win at Fulham in order to secure Champions League football next season.
