It all comes down to tonight’s Game 7 tilt for the Maple Leafs and Panthers in what has been a wild up-and-down series. The defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers are -130 road favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at O/U 5.5 goals.
Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET––here is my prediction and pick for tonight’s Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 7 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 7 pick, prediction
Despite looking out-of-sorts from Games 3 to 5, Toronto may have figured out how to control the flow of the game against Florida in Game 6. It posted a 54% 5v5 expected goal percentage and won the 5v5 high-danger chance battle, 13-6. While Woll has struggled in other games this series, he is coming off of a shutout win and has been dependable in previous elimination games, posting a 4-1 record. Auston Matthews netted his first career postseason goal against the Panthers and his third of the postseason in Game 6 but has failed to net one across four career Game 7s.
Game 7 may be the two greatest words in hockey but not for Leafs fans. Toronto has lost six straight Game 7s and hasn’t been to the Eastern Conference finals since 2002. Florida is 3-1 in Game 7s, including last year to win the Stanley Cup against the Edmonton Oilers. It has major playoff experience having represented the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals in back-to-back seasons, and Bobrovsky has a 2-0 career record in Game 7s.
Game 6 showed us that neither team was willing to make the first mistake. It featured a series-low 19 combined high-danger chances, and I expect more of the same tonight in a low-scoring matchup. And, if I had to choose which team makes the first mistake, it’d be the Leafs. Their playoff history is far too risky for me to back, especially in a Game 7, and their superstars tend to disappear when the lights get too bright.
54% of the bets and 59% of the money are on Toronto Moneyline (+110), too. The public expects the inexperienced Leafs to beat a Panthers squad that has won more postseason games in just the last three seasons than the Leafs have since 2003. I get that the Leafs are well overdue for this win to advance but not just yet. Pair Panthers Moneyline with under 5.5 goals, and you’re looking at an enticing two-leg, plus-odd Same Game Parlay (SGP) on DraftKings Sportsbook, too.
