The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 7 of today’s Western Conference Semifinal matchup, with the Minnesota Timberwolves awaiting their opponents. Nikola Jokic will look to further etch his name in NBA history by earning a trip to his third Conference Finals and have a chance at revenge against the same team that eliminated Denver last year.
The pathway has not gotten any easier for the three-time MVP. The depth of Denver has already been an issue across these playoffs, and this will be further magnified following the Grade 2 hamstring strain that Aaron Gordon suffered in the previous matchup. Gordon is considered “physically improbable” to play with this injury set to take weeks to recover from. Jokic has stood on his head as the best player in the series against a better opposing roster and will look to do the improbable today.
Heading into this Game 7 matchup, the Thunder enter as 8.5-point favorites with -340 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +270 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 215 points.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Nikola Jokic prop bets for Game 7.
Best Nikola Jokic Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nikola Jokic’s props are listed at over/under 29.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 53.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Nikola Jokic to Record 35+ Points (+205)
This series has been a clear display of the best player vs. the best team. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gives Nikola Jokic a more legitimate run than most in this conversation, and very well may walk away with the MVP trophy this year, Jokic has been forced to stand on his head throughout this series. In the first six games of this match-up, Jokic is averaging 29.8 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. The lack of reliable scorers around him has forced Jokic to play with more of a score-first mentality, and he has two games with 42+ points already in this series.
Expect this to be magnified with the loss of Aaron Gordon and the 16.8 points per game he has provided in this playoff run. The two-man chemistry that the two possess makes up a significant portion of Denver’s offense, which will change completely. Gordon has made a living making baseline cuts and catching lobs from the three-time MVP. Expect Peyton Watson, Russell Westbrook, and Christian Braun to fill this role to an extent, but for Jokic to need to attack more as a scorer.
The standard point prop for Jokic is set at 29.5 for this matchup, with the over favored at -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. While I like this number as well, I think there is a bit more value on the board. The Denver star has attempted 25+ shots in three games in this series after reaching this total just once in the Clippers series. He also tallied 35+ points in 19 games in the regular season.
Expect Jokic to leave it all on the floor tonight and be willing to score as many points as will keep the Nuggets in the game. Denver is overmatched from an overall talent perspective, but Jokic can drag a team to his desired result in any given game. Count on Jokic to tally 35+ points for the 18th time in his playoff career with an MVP effort today.
Nikola Jokic to Record 3+ Made Three-Pointers (+175)
One area where Jokic can make his life easier from a scoring perspective is from beyond the three-point arc. The 30-year-old shot a career-high 41.7% from beyond the three-point arc this season while launching a career-high 4.7 perimeter shots per game. His three-point volume has climbed to 5.3 per game in the postseason while still connecting at a 37.7% rate. In this second-round matchup against the Thunder, Jokic is attempting 6.3 three-point shots per game and has made 12 total long-range shots in the series.
Oklahoma City has done a nice job keeping a body on Jokic while having coverage behind him. Isaiah Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren, and Jaylin Williams each have taken turns attempting to slow down Jokic’s array of offensive abilities.
The three three-point attempts Jokic shot in Game 6 were his fewest of the series. He shot 5-for-7 from beyond the arc in the previous game, and he has cleared the standard 1.5 made three-pointer line in four of the six games. He shot an uncharacteristic 0-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 3, in one of the games he fell short.
Expect Jokic to accept the strong rim and post resistance that is being thrown his direction and be comfortable attacking from the perimeter. He tallied three or more made three-pointers in 23 regular-season matchups and in three playoff games thus far. Count on him to take what the defense gives him and be comfortable connecting from deep today.
