Saturday night, No. 12 Michael Morales headlines his first UFC Fight Night against No. 8 Gilbert Burns. Morales is coming off the biggest win of his career, knocking out Neil Magny in August 2024. The UFC’s welterweight division has delivered some elite fights recently, and another could be added soon.
The Prelims start at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET. Here are my two best bets for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales.
Michael Morales To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
The UFC has recently been putting many up-and-coming prospects against elite veterans; this is the latest example. Burns has lost three straight fights, and the days of “Durinho” competing for a title seem over. During his prime, he possessed one-punch knockout power while mixing in takedowns. Lately, he has failed to keep up with younger talent like Sean Brady and current champion Jack Della Maddalena. Although Burns is declining, this pick isn’t entirely about him. Burns is still worthy to be in the top 15, but he is facing a future title challenger in Morales.
Morales is a tall, long fighter who is a vicious striker. When he gets connected, opponents are finished. As a top contender, Morales fights with the confidence to defeat tough opponents and win big fights. Since Morales is a massive -600 favorite on the moneyline, the better value is to get him to win by KO/TKO/DQ at -150 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Morales has 12 knockouts overall and three in the UFC. After passing his first test against a veteran with Neil Magny, another big knockout seems doable. Even though Burns isn’t the same fighter, a knockout against him would still propel Morales to contention.
Jared Gordon Moneyline (-125)
Even at 36, Jared Gordon has proved he can be an above-average fighter on his best night. His last four fights have ended weirdly. He lost to Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision, but Gordon outlanded him in total strikes, finishing with three takedowns and over six minutes of control time. His next fight against King Green ended after a clash of heads ended the contest. Gordon’s last victory came against Mark O. Madsen at UFC 295 in November 2023. Finally, in Gordon’s latest fight, he lost a split decision against Nasrat Haqparast while outlanding him in overall strikes.
Gordon now faces Thiago Moises, who has the same record in the UFC as Gordon: 8-6. Moises is talented, but has been too inconsistent in each fight. Gordon lands more significant strikes on the feet (5.75 vs. 2.50) and more takedowns (1.78 vs. 1.34) on the ground. If Gordon can stuff Moises’ takedowns, he should be able to get the job done in the striking department. You can get Gordon at -125 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this fight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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