NASCAR returns to its grass roots for the All-Star race. Gear up for a short-track Sunday night with a $1 million paycheck on the line. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star race at North Wilkesboro.
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Race Winner — All-Star Race
Ross Chastain +2500
Advanced statisticians love Ross Chastain, but there’s one stat they don’t like: a traditional one—qualifying position. Chastain’s average starting position is 23.4, a death sentence in the Gen-7 car. It’s the electric chair at a short track in the Gen-7 car, and at a newly repaved short track with few laps, you’re already dead. If Chastain doesn’t overcome his qualifying woes, he doesn’t stand a chance.
This is the All-Star race, where traditional qualifying rules don’t apply. NASCAR channels its best Vince McMahon impression, pulling out all the pro-wrestling gimmicks. The starting grid is set by heat races, with the heat race grid determined by a qualifying lap that incorporates pit crews. Chastain could start in the front three rows on Sunday night. The most aggressive driver, he has the best restart rating in NASCAR and the highest success percentage (finishing better than expected based on starting position). It’s simple: bet early to get the +2500, but you’re dead if Chastain starts mid-pack. Wait until the grid is set if you’re willing to play it safe and accept a lower return.
Race Winner — All-Star Race
Chase Elliott +1100
It always seems that drivers break out of winless slumps with wins that don’t count. This win counts in terms of purse—$1 million. Elliott needs a real win more than cash, but any driver will take a win and the money. The Elliott-Hendrick combo is hard to ignore at these odds. Elliott was the second-best driver at Martinsville earlier this season. He’s been a solid qualifier this year and started on the front row at Martinsville. His eighth-place finish in last season’s All-Star race looks disappointing on the surface, but he started 15th on the newly repaved surface. Passing was—and will be—limited. Elliott is one of the few drivers who has demonstrated the ability to move at North Wilkesboro.
Driver Prop — All-Star Race
Josh Berry -110 vs. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe’s first season with JGR hasn’t been smooth. The assumption that crew chief James Small would seamlessly be simpatico with Briscoe seems to be too sanguine. Berry has been much better at his new base. Both drivers have been forces to reckon with at short tracks. Briscoe excelled in the Gen-7 racing package at short tracks with Stewart-Haas Racing. Berry is a Hall-of-Fame late-model short tracker. He knows grass roots tracks. In 2023, he won the All-Star Open and qualified for the main event while subbing for Alex Bowman in the No. 48 Hendrick Chevy. A strong case can be made for both drivers, but the clear edge goes to the Team Penske allied Wood Brother No. 21 Ford.
