Rivalry Weekend rolls on this Saturday with a full schedule of 15 games spread throughout the day. Eight of the games are on the main slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. With 16 teams in the player pool, there are plenty of good options to consider in a variety of matchups across the country. Most of the contests are in the central, including regional matchups from Missouri, Texas and Wisconsin. The one East Coast contest in the mix is the Red Sox hosting the Braves at Fenway Park. The later action comes from the West, wrapping up with the Freeway Series in Los Angeles. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
As we get closer to the first pitch, be sure to check the latest weather updates, with potential issues to watch in Boston and San Diego, specifically. There are a few top-end starting pitchers available as well as some great options to attack that could give up plenty of runs based on their recent track record.
Let’s break it all down in my MLB DFS picks.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $9,000: Gallen has a great matchup at home against the Rockies, and he’s only the fourth-most expensive starting pitcher on the board. He has had an up-and-down season but has shown a high ceiling when he’s on his game.
Overall, he is 3-5 in nine starts with a 4.59 ERA, but his 3.93 FIP and 3.64 xERA indicate that he has pitched a little better than his ERA shows. He has a solid 54 strikeouts in 51 innings for a solid 9.5 K/9 strikeout rate. He was knocked around by the Dodgers in his last start but had 28.5 and 26.1 fantasy points in his two previous starts, which were both against the Mets. The Arizona Ace also showed his ceiling with 43.2 fantasy points against the Yankees earlier this season.
Part of the reason he has a good chance to deliver another ceiling game Saturday is that the Rockies have been awful all year, especially on the road. Despite playing their home games at offense-friendly Coors Field, they have scored the fewest runs in Major League Baseball, averaging only 3.13 runs per game. On the road, it has been even worse for Colorado since it averages only 2.0 runs per game while going 2-21 with a .184 team batting average and 28.9% strikeout rate. That makes the Rockies a great option to target with Gallen at just $9K on Saturday in the late game.
Value
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, $7,800: If you don’t pay all the way up for one of the top aces, you don’t have to go with a bargain value play that is high-risk. Instead, you can target a solid midrange value like Blanco. In his last start, Blanco earned 42.2 DraftKings points by throwing eight shutout innings with a career-high 11 strikeouts. The Reds managed just two hits against him, and he improved to 3-3 on the season.
Blanco has a 2.83 xERA that shows he has limited hard contact this season, more than his 4.04 ERA and 4.12 FIP have shown. Even before his strong start last Sunday, he was trending the right way with at least six strikeouts in three straight contests. He has earned at least 14 DraftKings points in four straight appearances, culminating in his masterpiece in his last time out.
While their numbers for the season are in the middle of the pack, the Rangers have been held to four runs or fewer in four of their last five games, including in each of the first two games in this series. In this matchup, Blanco has good upside and has also proven reliable enough to be a secure option at this salary.
INFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels, $6,600: Ohtani is scalding hot right now and reminding everyone that he’s the best hitter in baseball. He has nine home runs in his last 13 games and now has the Major League lead with 16 homers on the season.
Over those 13 games, Ohtani is 21-for-52 (.404) with a 73.2% hard-hit rate and a 36.6% barrel rate. He has a .608 wOBA over those 13 games while averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game.
On Saturday, he’ll face lefty Tyler Anderson ($8,200), but Ohtani is hitting .352 with a .434 wOBA in that same-handed split. He also has gone 4-for-7 in his career against Anderson with three triples and a home run. On the flip side, Anderson has allowed lefties to hit four home runs in 41 plate appearances and post a .452 wOBA against him this season.
Stud
Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves, $5,600: Bregman has a good matchup against Grant Holmes ($7,200), who is 2-3 in nine games and has given up nine home runs in 45 2/3 innings. On the road, Holmes has an ugly 6.38 ERA and 6.71 FIP, allowing five home runs in 18 1/3 innings.
Bregman has been excellent all season for the Red Sox, but he has especially heated up over the last month. He is hitting .323 in his last 24 games with seven home runs, eight doubles, 19 runs scored, 17 RBI and a .448 wOBA. His positional flexibility, which allows him to slot at either 2B or 3B, makes him even easier to build around Saturday night.
Value
Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $2,300: Lawlar has been in my values the last few days, but he hasn’t been able to get into the lineup for the Diamondbacks for the most part. I still buy into his upside, though, and his impressive dual-threat upside that he showed in Triple-A gives him a very high ceiling when Arizona does work him into the lineup.
If he hits ninth on Saturday night, he could be part of a great Arizona wraparound stack against the struggling German Marquez ($5,000). As I laid out yesterday, Lawlar hit an impressive .336 with six home runs, 15 doubles, two triples, 13 stolen bases and a .433 wOBA in 37 games for the Reno Aces.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, $6,100: Carroll is an expensive play that can pair with Lawlar in that stack, and he always brings a high ceiling with his power and speed combo. He went 2-for-5 with a double, a stolen base and 15 fantasy points on Friday night against Colorado and has three multiple-hit games in his last four contests. Over his last 12 games, he has averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game and has produced double-digit fantasy points eight times while going 15-for-48 (.313) during that stretch with a .459 wOBA and a 52.6% hard-hit rate.
He and the Snakes will be in a smash spot against Marquez, who has allowed 36 runs in 37 innings this season. The veteran righty is 1-6 with a 1.70 WHIP and 5.20 xFIP. He can’t blame it on Coors Field either, since his road ERA is 10.53. If you’re paying up for bats on Saturday night’s slate, Carroll definitely deserves a long look.
Stud
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, $4,600: Rodriguez has hit safely in four straight games and eight of his last nine games, averaging 8.8 fantasy points per contest over that span. He has at least eight fantasy points in three of his last four games after going 2-for-4 in the Mariners’ 5-1 win on Friday night.
Rodriguez has a 50% hard-hit rate over those nine games, although he has not attempted a stolen base. The Mariners take on Nick Pivetta ($10,100), who is the most expensive pitcher on the slate but allowed six runs to the Rockies in his last start and 12 runs in his last three starts combined. The Mariners aren’t a lineup you have to avoid, and Rodriguez has good upside for a midrange outfielder under $5,000.
Value
DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, $2,000: Keirsey is still available at the minimum salary after his dismal start, but he has shown some intriguing upside in his last few starts. Keirsey had his first homer of the year on Thursday and had 16 fantasy points, and he followed that up with five fantasy points on Friday.
Keirsey has four stolen bases on the season after swiping 39 and 36 bags in the last two years in the minors. While he’s still only hitting .116 on the season, Keirsey has enough power and speed potential to be a flier play at the minimum salary on Saturday’s slate. He is definitely high-risk but brings some sneaky upside and tons of salary relief if he starts against Tobias Myers ($6,100) as expected.
