Where’s the rivalry between Toronto and Detroit? It is Rivalry Weekend (TM), after all. Why—all you have to do is look at the “mere” 286 miles of intercontinental expressways between the stadiums, and therein lay the bitter, infrastructure-deep hatred! Otherwise, you’d have to go back a few decades, when folks from southern-central Canada grew up Tigers fans. Or so our resident Jays fan and Senior Editor Garion Thorne tells me. If I’m wrong, blame him. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Blue Jays and the Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction, preview
The Tigers own MLB’s best record at 29-15, and have been nothing short of dominant, particularly on offense. Detroit is scoring 5.6 runs per game, ranking third in MLB, fueled by a dynamic lineup led by Spencer Torkelson (11 HR, 34 RBIs) and Kerry Carpenter (.295 AVG, nine HR, 21 RBIs). The Tigers have found a rhythm, hitting .261 on the season and slugging .424, backed by a strong pitching staff (3.24 ERA, fourth in MLB).
Detroit’s offense has a wRC+ of 116, third in the MLB, ranking high for creating runs and bringing power. With Jack Flaherty (1-5, 4.61 ERA) taking the mound, the Tigers stand tall in their matchup. Flaherty, despite a less-than-ideal record, has 50 Ks, 1.24 WHIP, and a solid strikeout rate, making him the more reliable option compared to Toronto’s Bowden Francis.
For the Blue Jays, their pitching woes are well documented. Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA) has surrendered 12 home runs and sports an alarming 1.32 WHIP. Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 on non-fastballs (highest in MLB), and his xERA sits at a troubling 6.25. Over his last three starts, Francis has been tagged for 17 earned runs over 18.2 innings, including allowing six or more hits in four straight games.
Toronto’s pitching staff ranks 23rd in MLB with a 4.41 ERA, underscoring their struggles in high-leverage situations. The Blue Jays’ bullpen, though capable, has been inconsistent with a 4.09 ERA over the past two weeks. This inconsistency, combined with Francis’ lack of command, positions Detroit’s powerful offense for continued success.
Despite Toronto’s recent offensive uptick—hitting 19 home runs in May after a lackluster April—their struggles with pitchers like Francis could be too much to overcome. The Blue Jays’ power has yet to translate into consistent scoring; they rank 22nd in runs per game (4.00). Their inability to capitalize on home runs and failure to deliver in key moments will be tested again against a Tigers squad that ranks seventh in home runs and third in runs scored. Detroit’s lineup has a hard-hit rate of 39%—fifth in MLB. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has provided some pop with a .294 average and five home runs, but it’s not enough to mask Toronto’s glaring pitching issues.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
The Tigers have been moneyline favorites 26 times this season, winning 20 of those games (76.9%). When favored by a slim margin of -117 or less, Detroit’s win rate jumps to 80%. Detroit is 5-1 in their last six matchups against Toronto, with the offense averaging 6.1 runs per game in that stretch. On the other hand, Toronto’s success as underdogs has been spotty at best, with a 48% win rate when listed as underdogs. Detroit’s depth, including players like Torkelson and Riley Greene, gives them an edge in this matchup, particularly when facing a pitcher in Francis who’s been prone to the long ball.
Detroit’s stellar bullpen and offense should outclass the Blue Jays on Friday night, particularly given the inconsistency that has plagued Toronto’s pitching staff. The Tigers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Rogers Centre against teams with losing records, while the Blue Jays have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 Friday games against AL Central teams.
Play the momentum and take Tigers runline. And, while you’re at it: Detroit has hit the over in 13 of their last 16 contests while their offense has been on fire. The Tigers are averaging 5.6 runs per game and have a wRC+ of 116 against right-handed pitchers—fourth-best in the league. On the other hand, Toronto’s pitching staff, especially Francis, has a propensity to get absolutely shelled. The Blue Jays have gone over the total in 10 of their last 11 games, with their offense heating up as well. Toronto’s offense ranks fourth in wRC+ over the last 14 days at 130, and they are hitting for more power with 19 home runs in May alone. Francis by himself has given up 12 home runs already.
Slam the over, too.
Best bet: Tigers -1.5 (+142) at Blue Jays
Tigers begin the landgrab of Canada tonight—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
Total lean: Blue Jays vs. Tigers over 8.5 total runs (-110)
These offenses are just too hot.
