The Boston Celtics showcased their championship pedigree, proving they were not ready to roll over and call it a season just yet with their Game 5 victory. Jaylen Brown and the rest of the roster displayed a spirited effort following the loss of Jayson Tatum and produced their most convincing win of the series. Boston improved their ball movement and had improved cutting, with the offense showing some more life overall.
This Eastern Conference Semifinal battle will now return to New York, although home-court advantage has not meant much in this series. Madison Square Garden is sure to have an electric atmosphere, and the Knicks will be looking to put the series to bed. A victory would advance them to the Conference Finals for the first time since the 1999-2000 season.
Looking at the Game 6 odds, the Knicks are 2.5-point favorites and -142 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Celtics hold +120 odds of pulling off the upset, with the over/under set at 211.5 for this matchup.
A Game 6 victory would force the second Game 7 of these conference semifinals across the NBA, with this matchup taking place on Monday. However, it takes another shorthanded Celtics victory to make this possible, and here is a look at my favorite matchups for tonight’s crucial game.
Luke Kornet Over 6.5 Rebounds (-130)
The story of the Game 5 victory very well may have been Luke Kornet. The fan-favorite big man clocked 25:38 of game time and produced 10 points, nine rebounds, and seven blocks while finishing a +20 in the matchup. Kornet swung the momentum of the game and should be called on for a similar role tonight.
Looking at the rest of Boston’s big man options, things have gotten slim. Kristaps Porzingis was held out of the second half with Joe Mazzula telling reporters following the game he was struggling to breathe. Porzingis has been noticeably bothered by this viral issue he continues to battle and has not looked remotely close to the best version of himself all postseason. He is shooting just 23.8% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the three-point arc in this series, averaging 4.2 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. Al Horford is also showing his age, and Jayson Tatum was logging minutes at the center spots for stretches before his injury.
Kornet is much more than just a good story off the bench, as he has been an impact player all season. Across his 18.6 minutes per game in the regular season, the Vanderbilt product averaged 6.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He tallied over 6.5 rebounds in 24 regular-season games and should be in line for expanded opportunity tonight based on the state of the team. Kornet knows exactly who he is as a basketball player and is comfortable playing within his role, with his focus surely to be on winning the rebounding battle tonight.
Expect Mazzula to call Kornet’s number at a higher rate again tonight, and for him to be necessary in combating Mitchell Robinson’s minutes on the floor. Count on the 7-footer to deliver with over 6.5 rebounds for the second straight game tonight and make an impact on this crucial Game 6 matchup.
Derrick White Over 4.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
Speaking of unsung heroes on this Celtics team, Derrick White has been the connective tissue of their winning brand of basketball since coming to Boston. He has been called on to scale up his offensive role following Tatum’s injury and is ready for the challenge. White came out firing in the previous game, connecting on four three-pointers in the opening quarter. The Colorado product finished with a team-high 34 points, shooting 7-for-13 from beyond the three-point arc.
This is not far out of the norm for the 30-year-old. White has shot 24-for-57 (42.1%) from beyond the three-point arc in this series. He is averaging 22.6 points per game and making 4.8 three-point shots. White has tallied over 4.5 made three-pointers in three games in this series and has not been held to fewer than three made perimeter shots against New York. He has attempted at least 11 three-pointers in every game in this series, except for Game 3, where he shot 3-for-6 from beyond the arc.
While the loss of Jayson Tatum changes this Celtics team in a major way, don’t expect Boston to abandon its identity as a high-volume three-point shooting team. This comes after a regular season in which Boston broke several NBA three-point records with White attempting a career-high 9.1 three-point attempts and connecting at a 38.4% rate. White also saw his usage rate jump from 19.9% with Tatum to 23.4% without him in the regular season. He is posting a 24.7% usage rate in the playoffs, with this number spiking 1.5% following the loss of Tatum. Look for him to continue making the most of his additional offensive opportunities and connect with over 4.5 three-pointers for the third straight game.
Jalen Brunson Most Points, Rebounds & Assists (+185)
With Jayson Tatum sidelined, there should be no doubt that Jalen Brunson is the best player on the floor in this series. The Knicks star is coming off a rare postseason stinker in which he fouled out with 7:19 remaining and was limited to 22 points, six assists, and one rebound. Looking at the series as a whole, Brunson is averaging 26.8 points, 7.4 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 29.4 points, 7.8 assists, and 3.7 rebounds across the playoffs overall.
By necessity, Boston is embracing a more team-first approach, with no one player making up the majority of the production. On the other side of things, the Knicks’ supporting cast has been variable in their production at best. Karl-Anthony Towns has not been leaned on often enough, while both OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have been all over the map in their production. Both players have had games with 20+ points while also being held to single-digit scoring outputs in five combined games.
Brunson also has a strong track record of bouncing back after losses. Following a playoff loss in his career, the Villanova product averages 30.4 points, 7.0 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game. Expect him to be at the heart of the production from all ends for the Knicks tonight. With the raucous Madison Square Garden crowd behind him, count on Brunson making the most of the moment and being ready to step into center stage tonight. He has led these matchups in combined points, rebounds, and assists in two games already in this series. Look for Brunson to leave it all on the table in this potential closeout game and take advantage of the +185 odds for him to lead the statistical output at +185 odds on DraftKings Sportbook tonight.
